Central, eastern U.S. face large, dangerous storm system early this week
After a relatively quiet end to 2023, the atmosphere is cranking out storms in hyperdrive mode. A high-impact storm system is about to slam the central and eastern Lower 48, bringing widespread hazardous weather between Monday and Wednesday.
The National Weather Service warns it could unleash an “extremely dangerous blizzard” in parts of the central Plains and Midwest, and potential significant flooding and damaging winds that may lead to power outages on both the Gulf and East coasts.
In addition, on the storm’s south side, there’s a risk of tornadoes, along the Gulf Coast on Monday and into Florida and parts of the Southeast on Tuesday.
Florida was hit on Saturday by a damaging tornado that carved a path just north of Fort Lauderdale-Hollywood International Airport. That was part of the same storm system that brought heavy rain along the Interstate 95 corridor in the Mid-Atlantic and snow or mixed precipitation farther inland. Much of the Northeast had received at least 4 to 10 inches of snow away from the immediate coastline through midday Sunday, and more was predicted in parts of New England before the storm exits at night.
Winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories still blanket the Northeast, but a second zone of winter weather alerts has been drawn across the nation’s heartland. That’s where the next system is already materializing.
Kansas City and St. Joseph, Missouri, are under winter storm watches, as are Des Moines, Sioux City and Cedar Rapids, Iowa; Amarillo, Texas; and Topeka, Kansas. Winter storm warnings cover eastern Nebraska, including Omaha, Lincoln and Grand Island; southeastern South Dakota; and northern Kansas. A small blizzard warning zone spreads over the New Mexico-Colorado border.
While snow pastes the heartland early this week, a surge of warm, humid air up the East Coast could bring unusually heavy rain and serious flooding, on top of the recent snow in some areas. The Weather Service has declared a Level 3 out of 4 risk of excessive rainfall in eastern Pennsylvania and southern New York. In these same areas, high winds could bring down trees.
Another significant storm, following a similar path as the one early this week, is possible Friday and Saturday.
Snowfall continued across southern Maine, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Rhode Island on Sunday morning. The Acela corridor largely missed out on snowfall, since temperatures closer to the coastline were too warm for snow. Washington got 1.02 inches of rain, Baltimore 1.2 inches and Philadelphia 1.08 inches. Precipitation was still falling in New York City, but Central Park had tallied 0.54 inches of rain. The Big Apple saw a few hours of snow, but temperatures in the mid- to upper 30s meant little if any accumulated before the changeover to rain.
In the Appalachians, moderate to heavy snow fell. Cumberland, in Western Maryland, logged 7 inches, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, posted half a foot, and a few 14-inch totals populated the map in the lower Hudson Valley about fifty miles to the north of New York City.
A total of 14.6 inches of snow fell southwest of Poughkeepsie, New York, with a foot measured in the hills of northwest Connecticut and similar totals along the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border.
Through Sunday morning, Hartford had picked up about 6 inches, but just up the Connecticut River Valley in Springfield, about 7 inches had fallen. Worcester, Massachusetts, recorded 9 inches, and 12 inches was measured in Haverhill, Massachusetts.
Snow totals varied substantially around Boston. Just one to two inches had fallen downtown as mild winds off the ocean cut down accumulation, but totals quickly increased to 3 to 6 inches in the northern and western suburbs. With colder air expected to enter the city during the second half of Sunday, the Weather Service predicted several more inches could fall areawide before the storm pulls away late Sunday night.
Around Portland, Maine, where 4 to 6 inches of snow had fallen through Sunday morning, storm totals were forecast to reach 8 to 12 inches.
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A more disruptive storm is coming
Unfortunately, an even bigger, more disruptive storm is about to affect close to half of the country’s population. A “deep and dynamic” low pressure system will take shape over the Plains on Monday before shifting north and east through Wednesday, according to the Weather Service.
On its cold side in the central states, near-blizzard conditions can be expected. On its warm side to the east, flooding, high winds and severe thunderstorms, including some tornadoes, are probable.
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Snow/blizzard potential
A swath of moderate to heavy snow is expected from near the Colorado Front Range to northwest Kansas. Northern parts of Missouri, southeast Nebraska, the Interstate 29 corridor of South Dakota, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin will also see a plowable snowfall. It’s still a bit early to give specific snow forecasts, but a general 5 to 10 inches is expected across this zone.
“Local maxima up to 12 inches are likely,” the Weather Service wrote. “Blizzard conditions are most likely in the central Plains where wind gusts in excess of 50 mph will lead to near zero visibility at times and extremely dangerous travel. Blizzard conditions are possible in the Midwest as well.”
Around St. Louis, Chicago, Milwaukee, Indianapolis and Detroit, temperatures will probably be too warm for substantial snowfall, but a nasty mix of rain and snow, along with wind gusts of at least 30 mph, are forecast Monday night to Tuesday night. All of those cities should see the precipitation change to all snow for a time as the storm is pulling away.
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Possible flooding and high winds along East Coast
The system’s “warm sector,” or region of mild air, will spread over both the Gulf Coast and East Coast late Monday into Tuesday. A general 2 inches of rain is expected for much of the region, with locally higher amounts. In the Northeast, the intensity of rain will be a problem, because rapid snowmelt in the warm weather will combine with rainfall to lead to flooding.
Downpours will be fed up the East Coast via an “atmospheric river” – a deep jet of moisture sourced from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.
“Widespread and potentially significant river and flash flooding are likely from the central Gulf Coast through much of the Eastern U.S.,” the Weather Service wrote.
The flood threat comes on the heels of an exceptionally wet December, which has left soils in many areas sodden and saturated.
Concern is also growing about damaging winds that may top 65 mph at the coastline in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The Weather Service office in Boston is already considering issuing watches for hurricane-force winds off the coast, with gusts around 70 mph for southeastern Massachusetts, including the Cape and Islands.
Weather models are unusually aggressive in simulating the potential for widespread 50 to 60 mph gusts as far south and west as the Carolina Piedmont. Major cities including Richmond, Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York all could see gusts over 50 mph. The combination of high winds and saturated soils could topple trees, meaning power outages are likely, reminiscent of the December storm that knocked out power to over 800,000 customers in the Northeast a week before Christmas.
The strong winds will pile water against the coastline, leading to a substantial storm surge along the shores of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. This could bring pockets of moderate coastal flooding Tuesday night into Wednesday.
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Severe thunderstorms in the South
Between late Monday and Tuesday, a strong dip in the jet stream associated with the storm will swing over the South, while warm, humid air wafts northward from the gulf, spawning thunderstorms. The influx of jet stream energy and momentum aloft will help encourage thunderstorms to rotate.
The Weather Service’s Storm Prediction Center has drawn a level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather from near Houston to Pensacola, Fla., on Monday, where damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are possible. The zone to watch also includes New Orleans and Mobile, Ala.
If there is an uptick in how much CAPE, or storm fuel, is available, then the Storm Prediction Center warns that “a couple of strong tornadoes” will be possible.
Additional tornado activity is a possibility over parts of the Southeast on Tuesday. A level 2 out of 5 risk of severe weather extends from the northern half of Florida to the Outer Banks. Orlando, Tampa, Tallahassee and Jacksonville, Florida; Savannah, Georgia; and Charleston, South Carolina, are all in the zone.
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Jason Samenow contributed to this report.