Oregon Supreme Court ruling will have significant implications for state Legislature, could deter future walkouts

The Oregon Supreme Court’s Thursday ruling barring 10 state senators who boycotted the Legislature last spring from seeking reelection will ensure significant turnover within the 30-seat Oregon Senate over the next two election cycles and could permanently curtail the already limited power of the state’s minority party.

Political experts predict the ruling will decrease the number of walkouts in future legislative sessions. Walkouts have been one of the few tactics that Republicans, as the minority party in the Legislature, have been able to use in recent years to stall bills pushed by Democrats.

“The whole idea of walkouts, for better or worse, I think has been dealt a blow,” said Priscilla Southwell, a political science professor at the University of Oregon. “Members of the Legislature are going to say, ‘Okay, we can’t do this that often, we can’t use this as a strategic tactic as frequently as has been done in the past.’”

Republican strategists, however, said Thursday’s ruling might not serve as the deterrent many expect. Bryan Iverson, legislative director for the Oregon Senate Republicans, said some lawmakers might be willing to forgo reelection to kill Democratic bills they fervently oppose and that participating in a walkout could help boost the public image of lawmakers preparing to run for higher office. During his run for Congress, U.S. Rep. Cliff Bentz emphasized the role he played in a Republican walkout at the statehouse that successfully killed a climate cap-and-trade bill.

“I fear that the Democrats, by doing the punishment of 10 days of unexcused absences, could be creating a culture of walkouts every cycle now,” Iverson said.

Effect on short session

In 2022, voters overwhelmingly approved Measure 113, which was intended to stop walkouts by barring any lawmaker who received 10 or more unexcused absences from seeking reelection. Despite the measure, nine Republicans and one Independent staged a six-week walkout last spring, forcing Democrats to scale back gun control and reproductive rights legislation.

When Secretary of State LaVonne Griffin-Valade ruled that those lawmakers were ineligible for reelection, five of the Republicans challenged her ruling in court, contending that they should be allowed to run for one more term because of bungled language in Measure 113. The Supreme Court rejected that argument.

The decision could have significant implications for the 35-day legislative session that begins Monday. While the ruling might deter walkouts in future years, Republicans who have already been barred from reelection have nothing to lose this session.

Senate Republican Leader Tim Knopp of Bend, who led the six week walkout last year and was one of the five senators who challenged the measure in court, told reporters Thursday that the ruling will give Republicans greater power this session because they can “pause the session if we need to” without repercussions.

“In our vantage point, it’s still an opportunity for Senate Republicans that represent mostly rural Oregon to have an influence in the legislative process, which is what our constituents send us here to do,” Knopp said.

It’s unclear whether there will be any controversial legislation this session that would compel a walkout. Leaders of both parties have largely expressed a desire to focus on bipartisan, non-controversial issues this upcoming session, including housing, behavioral health and adjustments to Measure 110, Oregon’s drug decriminalization law.

“My expectation is that my Republican colleagues who also take their jobs very seriously are going to continue to show up and work with us,” said Senate Majority Leader Kate Lieber, a Democrat from Beaverton.

Oregon is one of four states that requires a two-thirds majority in the Legislature to meet a quorum. In the majority of states, a quorum can be reached by a majority vote, meaning that a walkout by the minority party would not prevent legislative action. Since there are 17 Democrats in the 30-person Oregon Senate, that means at least three minority party senators will have to show up each day during the five-week session for the chamber to conduct business.

Knopp said Senate Republicans are committed to working in a bipartisan manner.

Shawn Cleave, longtime Oregon lobbyist and former chief of staff to Oregon House Republicans, added that the short session won’t include as many controversial issues as recent sessions, which could mean a lowered risk of a drawn-out Republican boycott.

“I don’t think anybody in the assembly wants to be in a position to walk out,” Cleave said. “They want to serve their elected position to the best of their ability.”

But some experts say Republicans could be tempted to boycott over small disagreements.

“It costs them nothing to walk out again,” said Paul Gronke, political science professor at Reed College. “It may make it easier for them to walk out on their own over something that might be relatively minor.”

The 2024 election

The Supreme Court’s ruling means that a third of the Senate will be barred from seeking reelection over the next two cycles.

Some of the lawmakers newly barred from reelection have been preparing for this decision for months. Bill Hansell of Pendleton and Lynn Findley of Vale both announced plans to retire well before the Supreme Court’s ruling.

Others lawmakers put backup plans in place before Thursday’s decision. Sen. Dennis Linthicum of Klamath Falls, for example, is hoping that his wife wins his seat this fall.

“First, I’m not shocked by the ruling, coming as it does from a Supreme Court universally stacked with Democratic Party appointees,” Linthicum said in a statement Thursday. “Although the ruling is a disappointment, my chief of staff, Diane Linthicum, filed for this position back in September 2023.”

Art Robinson, a Republican from Cave Junction, will support his son Noah in a run for his seat, and Knopp has endorsed Downtown Bend Business Association Executive Director Shannon Monihan in the race for his District 27 seat.

The Oregon Constitution doesn’t bar the lawmakers from running in future elections, though none has so far indicated that they plan to run for office again.

“I don’t think their careers are over,” said Southwell, the University of Oregon professor. “So they may have a caretaker take their position for two or four years and then just emerge again.”

Three Republican senators have also challenged Measure 113 in federal court, arguing that the lawmakers’ boycott is protected as free speech under the First Amendment. Last December, a federal judge denied a preliminary injunction in the case.

Six of the Republicans who participated in the walkout will leave office by 2025 while the other four will depart by 2027. That guarantees a shakeup of the Republican party in this fall’s election, which could open the door for contested races in some of those senators’ districts and give Democrats a chance to pick up at least one additional seat.

For example, registered Democrats in Knopp’s Bend district, which was redrawn in 2021, now outnumber registered Republicans 36,578 to 26,529.

However, experts say the Republicans’ minority stake in the Senate will likely not corrode through the next election because most of the seats left behind by the outgoing 10 senators will almost certainly be filled by other Republicans.

“It’ll be the same party, just different individuals,” said Christopher Stout, political science professor at Oregon State University.