A month on, a tenuous ceasefire holds in Lebanon

BEIRUT – A fragile ceasefire between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah has largely held for a month now, halting the deadliest war in years between the two sides and injecting a measure of calm into a region in turmoil.

The 60-day truce went into effect Nov. 27 and has remained in place even as Hezbollah and Israel have traded attacks and exchanged accusations of violations. But a month on, there are concerns that the deal is not being implemented by either side in a timely manner.

As hundreds of thousands of displaced Lebanese return home, many are hoping the ceasefire will last, especially as their country grapples with a deep and prolonged economic crisis that was exacerbated by the war and years of political stagnation.

“We feel like we are coming back to life,” said Huda Hamzeh, whose fruit-and-vegetable stall in the capital, Beirut, has suffered from a lack of supply and fewer clients during the war. “We just want forever peace.”

Iran-backed Hezbollah was considerably weakened by the war. Securing the ceasefire required the group to make serious concessions, such as pulling its fighters and weapons back from a zone in southern Lebanon that borders Israel.

The truce took effect more than a year after Hezbollah began attacking Israel in solidarity with its ally Hamas, the Palestinian militant group in Gaza that led the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel. Israel retaliated by assassinating Hezbollah’s leadership and pummeling the group’s bases.

Shortly after the truce was announced, the Iran-backed alliance across the Middle East suffered another serious blow when Syrian dictator Bashar Assad was ousted by rebels. During Syria’s long civil war, Hezbollah had sent fighters to the neighboring country to defend Assad. And Syria was an important lifeline for Hezbollah, serving as a land bridge for shipments of weapons from Iran to Lebanese territory.

Israel has conducted a series of strikes on Lebanon since the ceasefire began, most of them concentrated in Hezbollah’s stronghold in south Lebanon. But this week, Israel attacked the eastern Bekaa region for the first time since the deal was agreed, Lebanon’s national news agency reported.

About two dozen people have been killed across Lebanon since the truce began, according to officials and media.

Israel attacked seven border crossings along the Syria-Lebanon border Friday, according to Maj. Gen. Tomer Bar, the commanding officer of the Israeli air force. Explaining the reason for the attack, he suggested that Hezbollah was testing Israel by trying to smuggle weapons in over the crossings.

Since the truce went into effect, the Israeli army has been conducting extensive operations in dozens of villages across southern Lebanon, saying it was dismantling tunnels, confiscating weapons and surveillance systems and demolishing a Hezbollah command center.

Lebanon’s foreign ministry filed an official complaint with the U.N. Security Council this week, saying Israel had launched more than 816 land and air attacks against Lebanon from Nov. 27 to Dec. 22. The violations “represent a serious threat to international efforts to achieve security in the region,” the ministry said.

More than 3,700 people in Lebanon were killed during the war and some 16,000 injured, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry, which does not differentiate between combatants and civilians. The conflict displaced about 1.3 million people in Lebanon, wiped out billions of dollars from the economy and devastated everything from farms to schools, businesses and hospitals.

In Israel, dozens of people living in front-line communities in the north near the Lebanese border were killed during the war, and more than 60,000 civilians were uprooted.

To end the cross-border fighting, the United States brokered a deal that requires Hezbollah to withdraw its fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon and Israeli troops to gradually return to their side of the border, both within 60 days.

Lebanese forces backed by UNIFIL, the United Nations peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, were supposed to deploy to the area south of the Litani River to maintain peace in the border zone. A committee, including France and the United States, has been set up to monitor compliance by all sides.

An Israeli army spokesperson has also been warning residents against returning to dozens of villages across south Lebanon, without further explanation as to why they cannot go back. The move has incensed some of the displaced Lebanese.

So far, Khiam in southern Lebanon is the only town the Israeli military has vacated and the Lebanese army has deployed in, according to UNIFIL head of mission and force commander, Lt. Gen. Aroldo Lázaro.

Lázaro said the peacekeeping force has conveyed its concern “at the continuing gunfire, demolitions, blasts and roadblocks” by Israeli forces around Naqoura, the town where the peacekeeping mission is headquartered.

Both UNIFIL and Lebanese officials have in the past week called on Israel to accelerate its withdrawal from south Lebanon.

While visiting Khiam this week, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, called on the monitoring panel to pressure Israel to completely pull out of south Lebanon.

“There must be no justification for Israeli occupation of any part of our land,” Mikati said, according to the Lebanese national news agency.

It was not clear to what extent Hezbollah has withdrawn its fighters and weapons from southern Lebanon. Lebanese military and government officials did not respond to requests for comment on the question.

About 6,000 Lebanese army soldiers have deployed to the south, and thousands more are expected in the coming months. Mikati has insisted the army is capable of securing the south and stabilizing the country.

But the Lebanese government is cash-strapped, and observers say the army, which has long depended on donors, will need more support to bolster its presence in the south.

The army proved unable to control Hezbollah after the group’s monthlong war with Israel ended in 2006.

And while Hezbollah might remove its weapons from the south, it will be hard to uproot its fighters from the villages in the area, said Mounir Shehadeh, a retired general who previously oversaw the Lebanese government’s coordination with UNIFIL.

“How will they be expected to leave the region south of the Litani when it’s their towns and their properties?” Shehadeh said. “That wouldn’t make sense.”

The coming month will be a crucial test of whether the ceasefire can last more permanently.

For many Lebanese, the hope is that funds to support reconstruction efforts will soon be available. Mikati said this week that his Lebanese government was working with the World Bank, the European Union, Arab states and other countries to establish a fund to rebuild, especially in obliterated villages across the south.

Lázaro said they were prioritizing road repairs, removing unexploded ordnance and expanding patrols so that more people could return home.

“The necessary long-term solutions are political,” he said in written responses to questions. “There is ultimately no military solution.”

This article originally appeared in The New York Times.