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Seattle Seahawks

Here is Seahawks’ path to playoffs, according to NFL

Seattle Seahawks’ DK Metcalf scores on the 25-yard touchdown pass from Geno Smith in the first quarter, beating Minnesota Vikings cornerback Stephon Gilmore on Sunday, Dec. 22, 2024, at Lumen Field in Seattle. (Dean Rutz/Seattle Times)
By Bob Condotta Seattle Times

SEATTLE – The final game of Week 16 on Monday night solidified all the NFL playoff scenarios.

Tuesday, they were clarified by the official source – the NFL.

According to the league, there are three scenarios this week in which the Los Angeles Rams can clinch the NFC West and eliminate the Seahawks, who via ESPN analytics and others, have no path to a wild-card spot.

The Rams are 9-6 and defeated the Seahawks (8-7) at Lumen Field on Nov. 3, 26-20 in overtime, giving L.A. the head-to-head edge.

The Seahawks play at Chicago Thursday night, and the Rams host Arizona Saturday night on the NFL Network.

The three scenarios in which the Rams clinch the NFC West this week are:

• A Seahawks loss or tie Thursday in Chicago against the Bears and a Rams win over Arizona Saturday night.

• A Rams tie and a Seahawks loss.

• A Rams win plus the Rams clinching the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Seahawks (more on that in a moment).

Under the first scenario, the Rams would be 10-6 at the end of the weekend and the Seahawks 8-8 with one game remaining, rendering meaningless the regular-season finale between the teams at SoFi Stadium either Jan. 4 or Jan. 5.

A Rams tie and Seahawks loss accomplishes the same thing, putting L.A. at 9-6-1 and a 1½ games ahead heading into Week 18.

In the final scenario where L.A. and the Seahawks win this week, the NFL clarified that the Rams can clinch a playoff spot by the strength-of-victory tiebreaker over Seattle by getting 3.5 wins (three wins and a tie) from the six following teams – Minnesota, Buffalo, San Francisco, Washington, Cincinnati and Cleveland.

Four of those teams are favored: The Vikings by one at home against Green Bay Sunday; the Bills by 10 at home against the New York Jets Sunday; Washington by four at home against Atlanta; and the Bengals by three at home against Denver.

The other two are underdogs – Cleveland, by 6.5-points at home against Miami; and San Francisco, by four points against Detroit on Sunday on Monday night.

The strength-of-victory scenario is why the Seahawks’ game against the Bears doesn’t factor heavily in playoff percentage calculations. A loss to the Bears doesn’t eliminate the Seahawks if the Rams also lose.

The biggest thing the Seahawks need is a Rams loss against Arizona.

In that scenario, a Seahawks win over the Rams on the final weekend would make each team 9-8 and splitting the head-to-head tiebreaker. It would go to division record, and the Seahawks would have the edge there at 4-2 to the Rams’ 3.3.

Whether there is anything riding on the Seahawks-Rams game will play into whether that game will be held on Saturday or Sunday.

As the league has done in years past, it is waiting until the end of Week 17 to determine dates and TV designations for games in week 18.

There are two slots for games on Jan. 4 on ESPN/ABC – 1:30 p.m. and 5 p.m. The latter time slot might be a natural for the Seahawks and Rams if it is a winner-take-all game for the NFC West.

There are also daytime slots on Jan. 5 as well as the usual Sunday night game on NBC. That could also be a spot for Seahawks and Rams if it is going to decide the NFC West.