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Seattle Seahawks

Analysis: Here’s the one thing Seahawks’ playoff hopes rest on

Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson gains yards against the Seahawks after a catch Sunday at Lumen Field in Seattle. Jefferson made 10 catches for 144 yards and two touchdowns in the 27-24 victory. (Tribune News Service)
By Bob Condotta Seattle Times

SEATTLE – What do the Seattle Seahawks’ playoff odds look like after Sunday’s 27-24 loss to the Minnesota Vikings?

To recap, the Los Angeles Rams are 9-6 after winning for the eighth time in 10 games Sunday against the New York Jets while the Seahawks fell to 8-7.

Sunday’s results mean the Seahawks’ only realistic path to the postseason is for the Rams to lose their final two – Saturday night against Arizona and the following weekend against the Seahawks, both at SoFi Stadium.

That means the most important game for the Seahawks’ playoff hopes is one in which they won’t be playing – the Arizona-Rams game.

If the Rams beat Arizona, then regardless of a loss to the Seahawks, L.A. will almost certainly win a tiebreaker thanks to a better strength of victory – a lead that would be strengthened with a victory over Arizona which has seven wins (the Bears have only four).

According to the Pro Football Network, L.A. has a nine-game edge in that tiebreaker heading into Monday night’s Saints-Packers game, 60 wins by their combined opponents to 51 wins. Good for the Seahawks, Green Bay won.

According to The Upshot’s playoff calculator, a win by the Saints win (L.A. beat New Orleans earlier this year) would have all but assured that the Seahawks could not overtake the Rams in strength of victory.

The Seahawks have a 12% chance to win the division, via The Upshot (and hey, that number is a good omen!).

Wins by the Seahawks and Cardinals this week improve the Seahawks’ playoff odds to 36%, or essentially the odds The Upshot gives of the Seahawks being able to beat the Rams at SoFi Stadium.

Because of the strength-of-victory tiebreaker, losses by the Rams and Seahawks this weekend leave the playoff percentages basically the same – 35%.

A Rams’ loss to Arizona means the Seattle-L.A. game is winner-take-all regardless of what the Seahawks do against Chicago.

That’s because if the Seahawks beat the Rams and each team finishes at 9-8, the Seahawks would get the nod. That’s because the two teams would have split the season series, which is the first tiebreaker. In that scenario the Seahawks would win the second tiebreaker, which is division record, at 4-2 to the Rams’ 3-3.

We’ll know by Saturday night if there is any life left in the Seahawks’ season.