Commentary: Skeptical the Mariners will make a splash this winter? It’s warranted.

It’s December, which means spring training is still two months away and that rosters are far from filled. To view last week’s winter meetings through the lens of finality would be premature.

Plenty of signings can and will occur in the coming weeks. Same goes for trades. But if you’re a Mariners fan, you have every right to be stewing in your seat thinking “same old M’s.”

No, nobody realistically thought Seattle was going to make a play for Juan Soto, who signed a 15-year, $765 million deal with the Mets last week. Just as nobody realistically thought Seattle could make a play for Shohei Ohtani one year earlier, when the game’s greatest player inked a 10-year, $700-million deal with the Dodgers.

But the fear seems to be that the infamously frugal organization is going to 1) stay frugal, 2) part with potent players before bringing on new ones.

To the Mariners’ (partial) credit, they have increased payroll over the past few seasons, climbing from 24th in 2021 MLB to 16th in 2024. That climb, however, still puts the club in the bottom half of MLB.

Have issues with their regional sports TV network affected the Mariners financially? Sure. Are they in a major market like the incessantly free-spending Dodgers and Yankees? No.

But have they made the playoffs more than once in the nine seasons that John Stanton has been chairman and Jerry Dipoto the GM/president of baseball operations? That’s a big no as well. And with no additions at the end of the winter meetings — and talk of trading an ace to boot — anxiety of another disappointing year looms.

As of right now, the Mariners are not better than they were last season, when they blew a 10-game lead to the Astros and fired manager Scott Servais before falling a game shy of the postseason. The offense that finished 21st in MLB in runs and 22nd in OPS has not improved.

It was the lineup, not the dominant pitching rotation that kept Seattle from winning the division or sealing a wild-card spot, and it’s the lineup that remains ill-equipped to compete for a title.

Enter Luis Castillo. The Dominican pitcher serves as one of the counters to the notion that the M’s refuse to shell out dough, as he signed a five-year, $108 million extension with the team in 2022. Now, however, he appears to be one of the more coveted arms on the trade market — in part because his contract suddenly seems modest compared to what other aces such as Blake Snell and Max Fried have agreed to this offseason.

So, the idea is that offloading Castillo in exchange for some offense and financial flexibility might make sense. Especially when the M’s have other standouts in the rotation such as Bryce Miller, Logan Gilbert, Bryan Woo and George Kirby. The M’s may not exactly want to trade Castillo, but the demand for starting pitching has gotten so high that the phone keeps ringing.

Here’s the problem, though: Can the Mariners really expect to get the same value in the lineup for what Castillo provides on the mound? Granted, last year wasn’t his best season, but he still put up a 3.64 ERA for a team that had the best ERA in the American League.

The starting rotation is the cornerstone of this team. Castillo might make the most sense to trade given that he is 32 and significantly older than the other starters, but the “core” of this club that’s so highly touted? That’s essentially the pitchers, along with Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh.

Still, it might be necessary to give Luis up. And that’s what happens when you don’t spend in other offseasons, as has been the Mariners’ M.O. for so many years. They are desperate for offense, and can’t lean on guys they’ve paid for before. This in addition to the team supposedly only having a $15-20 million budget to spend on roster upgrades.

I’ve said multiple times that it’s easy to tell people how to spend money when it costs you nothing. But if this team is serious about winning, can they really not put up more capital?

This is an ownership group, remember, not one person. It isn’t just Stanton whose net worth has a “b” in it, it’s Chris Larsen, too. Nobody is asking them to be the Dodgers or Mets, but they are asking for a financial showing. If they miss the playoffs and were, say, seventh in MLB in payroll, so be it. That just doesn’t seem like a possibility for this team, and until those extra dollars are spent, fans are right to be skeptical.

To be fair, there have been some misses on Dipoto’s end, too. Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver and Mitch Haniger — all acquired last offseason — grossly underperformed. Rodriguez also had a drop-off from his sophomore season, when he placed fourth in the AL MVP voting.

But to channel Bill Parcells for a second: You are what your payroll says you are. The Mariners continue to be in the bottom half. And when you’re at the bottom end in that regard, you’ll rarely be at the top of the standings.