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French government set to be toppled in no-confidence vote

French Prime Minister Michel Barnier, center, leaves after a session of questions to the government at the National Assembly on Wednesday in Paris. The French National Assembly will debate, after questions to the government, two motions brought by the French left-wing Nouveau Front Populaire (New Popular Front) NFP coalition and the French far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) RN party in a standoff over 2025’s austerity budget, which saw Barnier force through a social security financing bill without a vote on Monday. (Alain Jocard/Getty Images North America/TNS)
By Ania Nussbaum and Samy Adghirni Bloomberg News

France looked set for more political turmoil after the far-right National Rally and the leftist Socialists said they would vote to bring down the government.

National Rally President Jordan Bardella said in a radio interview Wednesday that his party would back a no-confidence motion scheduled for later in the afternoon. Boris Vallaud, the head of the Socialists in the National Assembly, said separately on television that he, too, would support it. Those comments seemed to cement the end of Michel Barnier’s short term as prime minister, despite an appeal late on Tuesday from President Emmanuel Macron for lawmakers to support the government.

France has been in political limbo since Macron called a snap national vote in June after getting trounced in European elections. That left the lower house split into three fiercely opposed blocs: a diminished center supporting the president, a leftist alliance and a strengthened far right led by Marine Le Pen, whose National Rally is the biggest party in parliament. Her supporters, together with those backing the Socialists, have enough lawmakers to bring down the government led by Barnier, who was appointed prime minister in September with a core mission to get France’s messy finances in order.

“The only question that politicians today need to ask themselves is how they can be useful to the country and to the French people,” Macron told reporters on Tuesday during a trip to Saudi Arabia. “Not how they can be useful to their own ambitions or their own interests.”

The president said in Riyadh that for Le Pen’s party to support the no-confidence motion “would be a vote of unbearable cynicism,” adding that “I can’t believe that they’d vote for the” motion.

Lawmakers in Paris began debating the motions at 4 p.m. in Paris Wednesday, with the voting to start shortly thereafter.

Barnier also spoke of the potential that the no-confidence motion wouldn’t pass.

“I think it’s possible there will be a reflex of responsibility,” Barnier said on French TV late Tuesday. “I think that the country’s higher interest, the common good, the national interest, mean something.”

Bardella on Wednesday said that the comments by Macron and Barnier “show that they’re totally out of touch with what’s going on in the country, that they’re totally deaf to the suffering of the French people.”

“Le Pen might prefer political chaos to stability to put pressure on Macron to resign,” said Antonio Barroso, Eleonora Mavroeidi and Jamie Rush of Bloomberg Economics said.

Barnier used a constitutional mechanism on Monday to force through an unpopular budget bill, leading the National Rally and the leftist coalition to call for the votes of no-confidence. Le Pen moved forward with the motion even after Barnier submitted to nearly all of the National Rally’s demands to change the budget legislation.

If the government collapses on Wednesday, it would underscore the power acquired by Le Pen since Macron called the surprise election in June. It would also mark the shortest tenure for a premier since France’s Fifth Republic was founded in 1958.

The political turmoil has driven bond investors to punish France’s sovereign debt relative to its peers, pushing borrowing costs at one point last week to match Greece’s and leading Barnier to warn of a “storm” in financial markets if he is dismissed from power.

Investors have fretted for months over France’s political difficulties, just as the government has been trying to push measures that will reduce its unwieldy deficit.

The budget bill initially presented by Barnier’s government contained $63.1 billion of tax increases and spending cuts that aimed for a sharp adjustment in the deficit to 5% of economic output in 2025 from an estimated 6.1% this year.

The OECD expects France’s economy to expand just 0.9% in 2025 and 1% in 2026. It warned that even if the budget was adopted, additional measures would be “vital to reduce government debt significantly.” It also highlighted that “weaker-than-expected inflation and economic growth could reduce tax revenues, threatening the government’s ability to meet” deficit targets.

A government collapse so close to the end of the year would take France into unchartered territory. The outgoing administration, acting in a caretaker capacity, could use emergency laws to collect taxes and guarantee a minimal level of spending, but the economic and financial impact is hard to predict.

If the government is voted down, ministers remain in place with a caretaker status to manage current affairs, potentially including the emergency legislation to avoid a shutdown. It would then be up to Macron to appoint a new prime minister, although there is no constitutional deadline for his decision.

The president, in the meantime, said he wouldn’t resign until his full term had ended. While the left has called on Macron to step down, he can’t be forced out of his job. The next presidential election is set for 2027 and Le Pen remains the front-runner, according to polls.