Presidential race shake-up sharply increases voter registrations in Georgia

ATLANTA — New voters have registered in droves in Georgia since Kamala Harris entered the presidential race, especially Black, Hispanic and young voters, according to state election data.

The sharp increase in the rate of registrations suggests an outpouring of enthusiasm among voters who tend to vote for Democratic candidates in Georgia, a politically divided battleground that could decide the winner between Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump.

Black women led the surge, with a 75% jump in registrations compared with the same 3 1/2 week period in 2020, according to the most recent voter registration data available from the Georgia secretary of state’s office, stretching from July 21 to Aug. 13.

Sign-ups by Hispanic voters grew by an even larger percentage, 114% over the 2020 period, though the raw number of new registrations was lower than other racial groups because there are fewer Hispanic voters overall in the state.

And new voters under 30 years old spiked by 76%. Overall, 50% more voters have registered since July 21 than in the same period four years ago.

“It’s shocking. I did not expect to see something of this scope,” said Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data company TARA Group. “This has the potential to be a game changer in terms of the presidential race.”

Bonier’s research also found similar leaps in 13 other states since Harris joined the race, and he said Georgia’s growth in registrations reinforces an emerging national trend.

More than 46,000 people have registered since July 21, bringing Georgia’s total number of voters to 8.1 million. So far this year, 226,000 new voters have registered.

Conservatives are also seeking to recruit new voters ahead of the election.

Greater Georgia is launching a voter sign-up push next week to reach 180,000 eligible but unregistered Georgians through phone calls, digital ads and text messages. The goal is to get at least 10% of them — 18,000 people — to register before the state’s Oct. 7 deadline.

“We have to plan for a scenario where Georgia’s 2024 election will again be decided by razor-thin margins,” said former Republican U.S. Sen. Kelly Loeffler, Greater Georgia’s chairwoman. “We learned in 2020 that we have to work continuously to expand the tent, which is why voter registration was a day one priority.”

Harris, whose parents were Black and Indian, has sought to appeal to people of color and young voters who lacked excitement for Biden’s flagging campaign. Exit polls show those groups overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates in previous presidential elections, though the electorate is shifting.

“Harris’ entry into the presidential election has stimulated registration interest among all the groups we’re talking about here — not just in Georgia, but other states as well,” said Michael McDonald, a University of Florida professor who runs the U.S. Elections Project and reviewed Georgia’s voter registration data. “These are all positive signs for Democrats.”

White voters, who are more likely to back Republican candidates in Georgia, also showed growth in voter registrations, but at a lower rate than Black and Hispanic voters.

Besides the big increases in new registrations, even more young voters are on the way.

Over 9,600 registrations are “pending” because the voters signed up when they were 17 1/2 years old, which is allowed in Georgia. They aren’t eligible to cast a ballot until they turn 18.

Organizers for the New Georgia Project, a voter registration group, said they’ve seen growth in registrations throughout the year, punctuated by a wave of interest once Harris became a candidate.

“Voters in Georgia are actually feeling energized about the upcoming election,” said Eli Grace, director of field operations for the New Georgia Project. “Since the recent change in the presidential nominee, we’ve seen more excitement from unregistered people who are saying, ‘I want to go out and vote because this election is important.’ ”

The New Georgia Project said it has helped 39,000 people register so far this year, including first-time voters and those who have changed their names or married names. The group focuses its efforts on people of color, single women and young voters.

While new voters are generally less likely to turn out than longtime voters, people who register soon before an election have a higher propensity to cast a ballot, McDonald said.

Voters who register in an election year are more likely to vote, according to a 2007 peer-reviewed study published in the journal Party Politics.

In a fiercely competitive state such as Georgia, they could make a difference in the outcome after the 2020 race was decided by fewer than 12,000 votes. Recent polls have shown a close race in Georgia.

“Will they matter to the election outcome?” McDonald said. “It really depends how close the election is.”