Preview and predictions: The dawn of a dynasty? Vandals anchored by top defense as they keep building under Jason Eck
MOSCOW, Idaho – The Ol’ Walden Pond ball coach, Henry David Thoreau, predated the spread offense and the nickel defense. But he pointed the way to generations of successors who have puzzled over how to get their players to embrace the opportunities of the moment.
“All questions rely on the present for their solution,” Thoreau wrote. “Time measures nothing but itself.”
Wise words for the Idaho Vandals this year who are heading into the third season under coach Jason Eck with high hopes.
They reached the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs in Eck’s first year and advanced to the quarterfinals in 2023.
Fortified by a potentially elite defense and anticipating the development of a young but talented offense, the Vandals could reach even greater heights if Eck can impress upon them the urgency of leaning into the opportunities that present themselves throughout the season.
If he gets that message across, their time might be now.
Idaho is ranked seventh nationally in the preseason, and scoring on the Vandals could keep offensive coordinators burning the midnight oil. From a 9-4 team a year ago that finished 6-2 in the Big Sky Conference, Idaho returns five starters on offense – no seniors – but nine defensive starters, including eight defensive linemen who played at least 100 snaps in 2023.
The experienced Vandals’ defense owned spring football and most of the preseason. Idaho lost a pair of starting cornerbacks to the transfer portal after last season, Marcus Harris to California and Ormani Arnold to Cincinnati. But if the portal takes, it also gives. The Vandals welcome cornerbacks Corry Thomas from Northern Iowa and Abraham Williams from Weber State. The defensive line should be anchored by last year’s freshman All-America Dallas Afalava. Keyshawn James Newby, a Big Sky Conference honorable mention, provides a lightning rush off the edge.
Senior old hands Tommy McCormick and Kyrin Beachem anchor the secondary at safety, and Jaxton Eck, Zach Johnson and Mathias Bertram continue a tradition of stout linebacker play.
On offense, Hayden Hatten and Jermaine Jackson are off to the NFL. Running back Anthony Woods (Utah) and quarterback Gevani McCoy (Oregon State), who transferred after last year and will be fondly remembered. The Vandals hope players like quarterback Jack Layne, receivers Jordan Dwyer and Mark Hamper, and running backs Elisha Cummings and Nate Thomas can step up in those roles.
Coach Jason Eck has said FCS teams that do well in the playoffs tend to load up on tight ends and linebackers. Idaho has 10 of the former and 15 of the latter.
Countdown to kickoff
• Can the offense catch up to the defense, especially the offensive line? Layne, who threw for six touchdowns in his lone start against Idaho State last year, looks like a more than adequate replacement at quarterback for McCoy. Idaho also has depth at running back and receiver, and as many as five tight ends can play this fall. But the Vandals’ most experienced offensive lineman is Ayden Knapic, All-BSC honorable mention. Eck identified developing more offensive linemen as one of Idaho’s foremost tasks going into this season.
• Who will be breakout players in the kicking game? Ricardo Chavez handled both kicking and punting for the Vandals last year, and kicker Cameron Pope and punter LJ Harm are likely to split those duties this year. Pope has been consistently accurate on field goals to 45 yards in the preseason. Williams, the Weber State transfer and the Big Sky’s first-team kick returner last year, should smoothly step into the role Jackson occupied last season.
• Who are the notable transfers? In addition to Williams at cornerback and kick returner, transfers who may see plenty of playing time for the Vandals include Corry Thomas, from Northern Iowa, and graduate transfer K. J. Trujillo (North Alabama), at cornerback, Nate Thomas (South Dakota) at running back, and Orion Peters (Washington State) at receiver.
Men of the hour
• Jack Layne, QB: Jason Eck has called Layne one of the smartest quarterbacks he has coached, and the redshirt sophomore from Lake Oswego, Oregon, has delivered whenever called upon. Six touchdowns against ISU last year is a career highlight. But as a true freshman in 2022 he went 6 for 8 for 113 yards against Drake and threw for 255 yards and a touchdown to lead the Vandals over the Bengals.
• Dallas Afalava, DL: Afalava led Idaho in tackles for loss as a freshman, eight for 37 yards. He also made five sacks.
• Keyshawn James-Newby, DL: James-Newby joined Afalava in providing relentless quarterback pressure in 2023. The senior is building on a season where he accounted for five sacks, seven tackles for loss, two pass breakups and five quarterback hurries.
Defining moment
If Idaho can emerge with momentum from early season games against FBS power Oregon and Mountain West contender Wyoming, and the Vandals can handle the first half of their FCS schedule, the breakpoint in their season may be at Montana State on Oct 12. Ranked fourth in the preseason, the Bobcats will present a challenge for the Vandals defense to contain second-team All-BSC quarterback Tommy Mellot.
This would be a great time for “Takeaway Tommy” McCormick to rise up again. Skilled and reliable last season, he nonetheless did not conjure up the magic of 2022, when he made four interceptions, forced a fumble, recovered a fumble and blocked a kick.
Game-by-game predictions
Aug. 31 at Oregon (4:30 p.m.)
Idaho will face no greater test this season than the Ducks, expected to reach the Football Bowl Subdivision playoffs and possibly contend for a national championship. But strange things happen in opening games. Oregon will handle its business, but Idaho’s defense will keep it reasonably close.
Prediction: Oregon 35-10
Sept. 7 at Wyoming (12:30 p.m.)
The Cowboys are coming off a 9-4 year, a fifth-place finish in the Mountain West and a bowl win over Toledo. They have a new coach in Jay Sawvel, who was formerly defensive coordinator. Expect the Cowboys to continue to play their aggressive multiple front defenses. But Idaho has taken Washington State, Indiana and California deep into the fourth quarter the past two seasons, and the Vandals can play defense, too. Lucky Wyoming catches a still-developing Idaho offense and pulls out a low-scoring win.
Prediction: Wyoming 14-7
Sept. 14 vs. Albany (1 p.m.)
Payback time. The Great Danes ended Idaho’s season 30-22 in the FCS quarterfinals last year. But the transfer portal was hard on Albany. Elusive quarterback Reese Poffenbarger is now at Miami. Vandals roll.
Prediction: UI 28-10
Sept. 21 at Abilene Christian (5 p.m.)
The Wildcats are on the way up after a 5-6 season in 2023. But in a first meeting with the Vandals, they fall on the road as Idaho’s offense starts to hit its stride.
Prediction: UI 35-17
Sept. 28 at UC Davis (7 p.m.)
New coach, same result. Tim Plough replaces Dan Hawkins. But the Aggies have a reliable quarterback in three-year starter Miles Hastings and can control games with returning Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year Lan Larison at running back. The Vandals continue their tough ways against the Aggies.
Prediction: UC Davis 21-17
Oct. 5 vs. Northern Arizona (2 p.m.)
The Lumberjacks have eight starters back, four each on offense and defense, but they were only 5-6 last year. Idaho rebounds from the disappointing loss to the Aggies and wins decisively.
Prediction: UI 34-21
Oct. 12 at Montana State (7:15 p.m.)
The Big Sky’s best rushing attack meets the conference’s best defense. The Bobcats also have a premier quarterback in Tommy Mellott and an experienced defense of their own. But this is a defining game for the Vandals.
Prediction: UI 21-17
Oct. 19 vs. Cal Poly (1 p.m.)
Idaho is on a roll after a big win against Montana State, and Cal Poly, 3-8 in 2023, is just a speed bump for the Vandals.
Prediction: UI 42-10
Oct. 26 vs. Eastern Washington (6 p.m.)
Eighteen returning starters for the Eagles are looking to rebound from a disappointing 4-7 record in 2023, led by Efton Chism III, All-Big Sky wide receiver. EWU can’t stop Idaho’s running game, however, and Chism can’t hurt the Vandals standing on the sideline holding his helmet as the Vandals march relentlessly.
Prediction: UI 31-21
Nov. 9 at Portland State (1 p.m.)
The Vikings can score, led by quarterback Dante Chachere and running back and receiver Quincy Craig. The back end of the PSU defense is also capable, having returned four starters. The defensive line, however, can’t pressure, and that is fatal against a Vandals offense that has gained experience. Idaho makes it five wins in a row.
Prediction: UI 34-24
Nov. 16 vs. Weber State (5 p.m.)
Idaho remembers Richie Munoz. The freshman quarterback started the Wildcats’ final five games and led them to a 31-29 upset against the Vandals. WSU gets him for the whole season, which should alleviate the Wildcats’ offensive inconsistency in a middling 6-5 season in 2023. Brayden Wilson also returns at defensive end to lead a capable defensive front. This is a winnable game for the Vandals, though.
Prediction: UI 21-14
Nov. 23 at Idaho State (3 p.m.)
Looking to head into the playoffs with momentum, Idaho drops the hammer on the Bengals, who are only marginally improved from their 3-8 mark last year. Jack Layne threw for six touchdowns against ISU in 2023. Why not do it again?
Prediction: UI 42-7