Commentary: Will Washington’s season-long science experiment actually work?

SEATTLE – A seasonlong science experiment is set to unfold inside Husky Stadium.

But let’s not skip ahead.

After all, the scientific method – that convoluted concept we struggled to understand in elementary school – has six essential steps:

1. Ask a question.

2. Gather information.

3. Form a hypothesis.

4. Perform an experiment.

5. Analyze the data and draw conclusions.

6. Communicate the results.

The question – before Washington hosts Weber State in its season opener Saturday – is clear:

Can a new coaching staff, installing new systems, and playing new personnel, with a new athletic director, in a new conference … win in Year 1?

While Kalen DeBoer wears crimson and attempts to somehow succeed Nick Saban at Alabama, and the faces of last season’s College Football Playoff run reside on NFL rosters, new UW coach Jedd Fisch embraces the unknown. The 48-year-old Montlake maestro acknowledged last month, “It’s almost the first time ever that you would have 46 to 48 new players on a roster, along with 30 new staff members, coming off a 14-1 season.”

While we agree with the sentiment, two quick corrections:

UW added a mere 44 scholarship players (26 transfers and 18 freshmen signees) last offseason …

And scratch the “almost.”

Truth is, there is no direct precedent for such significant upheaval. But there are examples in the transfer-portal era of coaches who replaced much of their roster and won in Year 1. Louisville coach Jeff Brohm, for example, inherited an 8-5 team, added a whopping 25 transfers and produced a 10-4 record in 2023. Likewise, Lincoln Riley attracted 20 transfers and went 11-3 (while narrowly missing a Pac-12 title and CFP bid) at USC in 2022.

Still, those are outliers, not transferrable treasure maps.

(That is, unless the Huskies have a Heisman Trophy winner waiting in the wings.)

“It’s hard to have dramatic success when your offensive line has to be totally replaced,” said Big Ten Network analyst Yogi Roth, who previously served in the same role for the Pac-12 Network. “I think there’s something to cohesion and chemistry around that. Look no further than Lincoln Riley’s first year at USC. Yeah, a lot of guys left. Some new guys came in. But none were on the offensive line. They were all guys who had been there for three, four, five years. And they had the greatest player in the world in Caleb Williams, which of course helped. And they had an (accommodating) schedule.

“But to think that is the standard in a Year 1 rebuild with a blue-blood program … I don’t think that’s accurate. I think the No. 1 goal for a team in this environment is to have continuous improvement.”

So, in the aftermath of a Pac-12 championship, a Sugar Bowl win and a national championship appearance … what qualifies as a successful season? This is a team with unfamiliarly muted outward expectations – unranked in the preseason Associated Press Top 25 poll and picked to finish 10th out of 18 programs in the preseason Big Ten media poll. It’s a team that returns 2.6% of its rushing yards, 0% of its passing yards, 4.3% of its receiving yards, 37.5% of its interceptions, 43.2% of its tackles and 20.5% of its sacks from 2023.

It’s a team tasked with introducing five new starters along its offensive line, and protecting a quarterback – Mississippi State transfer Will Rogers – with minus-316 career rushing yards. It’s a team that ranked 103rd nationally in opponent yards per carry (4.69) in 2023, and will depend on Montana State transfer Sebastian Valdez, converted offensive lineman Logan Sagapolu, and former depth pieces Jayvon Parker and Jacob Bandes to envelop Big Ten running backs.

It’s a team with intriguing skill, talent and dubious depth in both trenches.

Which, considering the conference, causes question marks.

“To win games in the Big Ten, it starts in the trenches, as we all know,” Fisch said after being introduced as the Huskies’ new coach Jan. 16. “If you can’t run the ball or stop the run, you don’t have a chance. That’s No. 1. No. 2 (is) pass protection. So it’s going to come down to, what’s it going to look like with our offensive and defensive line?”

We’ll see, starting Saturday.

Still, if the lines prove capable, UW’s catalog of ascending skill players could storm the Big Ten. Rogers is a proven commodity with an SEC-record 1,264 career completions in four seasons at Mississippi State, surrounded by enviable options at running back (Jonah Coleman, Cameron Davis, Adam Mohammed) and wide receiver (Denzel Boston, Jeremiah Hunter, Giles Jackson).

First-year defensive coordinator Steve Belichick has been blessed with layers of legitimate depth at defensive end (Zach Durfee, Isaiah Ward, Voi Tunuufi), linebacker (Carson Bruener, Alphonzo Tuputala, Bryun Parham, Drew Fowler), cornerback (Elijah Jackson, Ephesians Prysock, Thaddeus Dixon) and safety (Kamren Fabiculanan, Justin Harrington, Makell Esteen, Cameron Broussard).

We don’t know if there’s ample physicality up front, on either side.

But the X-factor might be Fisch.

“I don’t think they’re going to win the Big Ten in Year 1, but I do think they’re going to be in every game,” Roth said. “I don’t look at them and say, ‘Whoa, they’re going to get drilled.’ But I think it’s going to be a challenge when you go to Rutgers on a Friday, just like it’s going to be a challenge when you go to Penn State in a White Out.

“I don’t think they’re going to be dramatically overmatched in games. I think their scheme and (Fisch’s) plan will give them a shot.”

Though the Huskies might be in every game … how many will they win?

Hypothesis: Buoyed by productive skill players and an innovative offensive scheme, but limited by a concerning lack of depth on both lines, Washington will go 7-5 in 2024.

The science experiment starts Saturday. Check back for the results.