Big Sky preview and predictions: Idaho State a dark horse? Will Montana teams be back on top?
The Big Sky Conference perennially lands five or six teams in the national FCS preseason polls, and this season is no different, with six among the top 22.
The quality of its football has bolstered the league’s reputation as one of the subdivision’s best, safely slotted behind the Missouri Valley Football Conference. That’s the one in which South Dakota State and North Dakota State – winners of six of the last seven national titles – reside.
But a change in the seeding this season may give the Big Sky a better shot of dethroning those two: Instead of just seeding the top eight teams in the 24-team playoff field, this year the top 16 will be seeded and thus will be guaranteed at least one home game.
“It spreads out the strength across the country, and that’s going to help us get more home games, win more games and get our teams deeper into the tournament,” Big Sky Commissioner Tom Wistrcill said in July. “It’s a really big thing.”
As the Big Sky begins its season, once again it will look to send a team – or maybe even two – to the national championship game.
The favorites: Montana, Montana State, UC Davis
Montana lost to SDSU in last year’s championship game 23-3 after a thrilling run that included three wins in Missoula, including an overtime victory over NDSU in the semifinals. There’s little reason to doubt the Grizzlies, who have a handful of preseason All-America selections, led by wide receiver and return man Junior Bergen. They open the year ranked No. 3 in the STATS Perform Top 25.
Fourth-ranked Montana State hosts the Brawl of the Wild in Bozeman this year, which could give them a leg up on winning the Big Sky championship over the rival Grizzlies. Two Bobcats players – quarterback Tommy Mellott and offensive lineman Marcus Wehr – are on the preseason Walter Payton Award watch list, and defensive lineman Brady Grebe – also the Big Sky’s Preseason Defensive Player of the Year – is listed on the watch list for the Buck Buchanan Award.
Hardly lacking its own star power are the 18th-ranked UC Davis Aggies. Lan Larison was named the Big Sky Preseason Offensive Player of the Year (he’s on the Payton list, too), and Rex Connors, Davis’ junior defensive back, is on the Buchanan watch list. Every year it seems the Aggies are left out of the playoffs despite a strong resume, but this year they look poised to keep themselves off the bubble.
Dark horse: Idaho State
While the Bengals open Big Sky play against Montana State, they don’t have to play UC Davis or Montana this season. And if last year is any indication, they are going to be able to throw the ball (330 yards per game). They also have Dan Hawkins – head coach Cody Hawkins’ father and former UC Davis coach – on staff in an assistant role, and it can’t hurt to have someone on staff who has coached the sport for 40 years.
Taking a step back: Northern Arizona
With a coaching change (Brian Wright is now head coach) and a schedule that includes games against Arizona, Incarnate Word, Sacramento State, Idaho and Montana within the first seven contests, NAU could very well get off to a difficult start that would be very hard to recover from. Repeating the 5-3 Big Sky record from last season seems difficult in the face of that while also trying to establish a starting quarterback.
Predicted order of finish (separated into tiers):
1 – Montana State
2 – Montana
3 – UC Davis
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4 – Eastern Washington
5 – Idaho
6 – Sacramento State
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7 – Idaho State
8 – Weber State
9 – Portland State
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10 – Northern Arizona
11 – Cal Poly
12 – Northern Colorado