Commentary: The Mariners have repeatedly failed to make a run. We know better than to believe.

SEATTLE – Baseball seasons are built on narratives. It was the fifth players-only meeting that finally flipped the switch, or the gutsy suicide squeeze that somehow saved the season. It was the improbable walkoff homer that preceded the winning streak, the moment a team on the brink of oblivion discovered its identity.

In 2022, it was a brawl in Anaheim, California, that inexplicably ignited the Mariners. Before a 91-mph cutter collided with Jesse Winker’s front hip, Seattle sat at 34-40, 12 games back of Houston in the AL West. After benches cleared, four Mariners were ejected and Winker presented both middle fingers to the booing fans … Seattle promptly won six straight series, including a 14-game winning streak, en route to a playoff run.

Point being: We love a turning point.

But now, 126 games in? We know better than to believe.

With a 64-62 record entering Tuesday’s game against the Dodgers, and a five-game deficit separating Seattle and Houston in the widening AL West, the Mariners have done nothing to suggest they’re capable of making a climactic push. While the Astros have won 11 of their past 12 games, Seattle has yet to win more than four straight all season, stuck in a perpetual stall.

While the Mariners have often appeared close to turning a corner, the corner has never come.

So the next time Seattle wins two straight, the next time it explodes for 10 runs in an atypical trouncing, the next time it looks like the Mariners are finally ready to make a run:

Deep breath. Don’t take the bait.

Consider the turning point teases strewn along their path. The turning point could have come on June 28, when Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh’s fateful dribbler delivered a 3-2 walk-off win over the Minnesota Twins; when shortstop JP Crawford ripped Raleigh’s jersey halfway off, and he raised the team’s signature trident in bare-chested bliss.

Instead, the Mariners dropped their next four games to the Twins and Orioles.

The turning point could have come on July 3, when Crawford and first baseman Ty France performed a sage-burning ritual in each corner of the team’s clubhouse. The product’s packaging touted its “ability to cleanse spaces of negativity (and) enhance mental well-being,” a useful tonic for a team that had lost nine of its past 12 games.

Instead, the Mariners managed five hits in a 4-1 defeat to Baltimore, before dropping two of three in the following series against Toronto.

The turning point could have come on July 11, when the Mariners stacked 15 hits in a convincing 11-0 clobbering of the Los Angeles Angels, their third consecutive win. Instead, they lost their next three games by one run apiece to limp listlessly into the All-Star break.

The turning point could have come on July 19, when a supposedly refreshed roster hosted rival Houston to start the second half.

“It’ll be a big series when we come back,” manager Scott Servais said before the break. “We’ve got Houston at our place. Our guys are fired up and looking forward to it. It is kind of a restart.”

Instead, it was anything but. The Mariners lost two of three (as well as the division lead) to the Astros.

The turning point could have come on July 21, when the Mariners placed France on irrevocable outright waivers, simultaneously jettisoning a franchise cornerstone and upsetting the status quo. Instead … by now you know the script. The Mariners were swept (by the lowly Angels) for the first time all season, managing a combined three runs and 13 hits in an unsightly three-game set.

The turning point could have come at the trade deadline, when the Mariners added a pair of position players (Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner) and relievers (Yimi Garcia and JT Chargois) to provide a playoff push.

“I think (the players) are energized by picking up a couple of new guys that add some personality to a team that was in a tough spot for the last 30 days,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said at the time. “We needed a little bit of juice. … It’s gonna be a heck of a lot more fun than it was before.”

Instead: (motions to the wreckage). The new-look Mariners have fallen into the same old slumps, with Turner slashing .196/.305/.275 in 15 games with Seattle and Arozarena entering Tuesday’s game mired in a 0-for-18 slump (with 11 strikeouts). In 18 games since Dipoto declared it was “gonna be a heck of a lot more fun,” Seattle has gone 8-10, including 2-7 against losing teams. The “fun” has been disguised as all-too-familiar frustrations.

The turning point didn’t come when Mitch Haniger managed a walkoff walk against the Phillies on Aug. 3, nor when the Mariners mauled the Mets 12-1 on Sunday Night Baseball on Aug. 11 to complete a convincing sweep. (I even wrote a rosy column on the suddenly surging Mariners last Monday, before they fittingly dropped five straight.)

So far, this has been a season of punished optimism, of the momentum-flipping winning streak waiting just out of reach. It’s been a season-long siren song, a parade of empty promises and stifling strikeouts. And no, it isn’t over.

But with 36 games to go, the Mariners have done nothing to deserve the benefit of the doubt.

For now, don’t take the bait.