Kamala Harris, Democrats ride momentum into national convention in Chicago

CHICAGO – What a difference a month can make.

As Republicans gathered in Milwaukee in July to nominate Donald Trump for a third time, their energy and optimism sharply contrasted with the downbeat Democrats, still in shock over the dismal debate performance more than two weeks earlier of their standard bearer, President Joe Biden.

Trump had survived an assassination attempt in Butler the weekend before the convention, and polls showed him ahead nationally and in Pennsylvania and other swing states, albeit mostly within the margins of error.

Then Biden abandoned his re-election effort and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor. Harris chose a Midwestern governor, Tim Walz of Minnesota, as her running mate. The Democratic ticket began climbing in the polls, supporters lined up for hours to get into her rallies, and the enthusiasm gap between the two parties has all but disappeared.

As a result, a very different Democratic Party will be gathering in Chicago for its four-day national convention beginning Monday. The substitution of Harris for Biden atop the Democratic ticket has scrambled the presidential race.

“It’s the total opposite now,” Democratic consultant Modia Butler said. “A lot of people were looking at the convention as something that was going to be laborious – something that we had to do, not something that we wanted to do. Now it’s totally flipped. The enthusiasm is high. Everybody is looking forward to celebrating our nominees for president and vice president.”

Take Pennsylvania, the nation’s most populous battleground state and the closest thing to a must-win state for the Democrats.

Recent polls from Franklin & Marshall College, Quinnipiac University, New York Times/Siena College and the Cook Political Report all put Harris ahead of Trump, albeit still within the margin of error. That reversed a trend following the July presidential debate between Trump and Biden that had the Republican starting to pull away.

The Real Clear Politics Pennsylvania poll average, which last month showed Trump ahead of Biden by 4.5 percentage points, now has the race a tie.

“It’s certainly a different ballgame,” Rutgers University pollster Ashley Koning said. “Democratic voters are still in this honeymoon stage with Vice President Harris. With all of the recent polls we’ve seen – upswings for her in key battleground states, upswings for her nationally, upswings for her in key voting blocs – we see that her favorability and people’s impressions of her have definitely improved.”

Just ask Jill Zipin, one of the Pennsylvania convention delegates who will be in Chicago this week.

“Democrats are enthused and excited, as am I,” said Zipin, chair of the Democratic Jewish Outreach Pennsylvania political action committee. “Kamala Harris added excitement to the ticket that was missing, and everyone loves Walz. Together, they make an exciting ticket, which hopefully will lead to victory in November.”

Also gathering in Chicago this week will be pro-Palestinian demonstrators, who have made their presence known for months, heckling Biden, Harris and other Democrats as they demand an immediate ceasefire in the war between Israel and Hamas. The March on the DNC plans demonstrations on Monday, the first day of the convention, and Thursday, the day Harris accepts her party’s nomination.

On the convention floor, the handful of delegates elected in party primaries as a protest against the Biden administration’s support of Israel could try to disrupt the proceedings and shatter the era of good feelings that so far has enveloped the Democratic Party since Harris became the nominee.

Harris will face serious scrutiny of her record as a public official and her previous policy prescriptions. She previously said she opposed fracking, though she has walked that position back. She has also faced repeated criticism from the right about the administration’s handling of the U.S.-Mexico border crisis, which surely is to a be central issue in the upcoming presidential debates.

Harris cast the deciding vote over unanimous Republican opposition to enact the $1.9 billion stimulus bill that included $1,400 checks, billions of dollars for state and local governments and an expanded child tax credit, but was blamed by Republicans for creating the worst inflation in decades. (The White House said consumer demand and problems with supply chains had a “substantial impact.”)

She also cast the deciding vote a year later to pass what was known as the Inflation Reduction Act, which lowered Medicare drug prices while earmarking billions of dollars for clean energy projects. Every Senate and House Republican also opposed that measure.

“This transformational legislation is reducing the cost of health care for millions of people in communities across our nation” as well as being “the single largest climate investment in American history.” Harris said, marking the legislation’s two-year anniversary.

While inflation has dropped to its lowest rate since 2021, prices remain significantly higher than they were when Biden and Harris took office in the middle of a pandemic and economic downturn.

In a recent Franklin & Marshall College poll, Pennsylvania voters named the economy as their top issue, and by 51% to 39% said Trump was more prepared to handle it.

“She destroys everything she touches and if she wins, your finances and your country will never recover,” Trump said of Harris at a press conference Thursday. “Harris has just declared that tackling inflation will be a day one priority for her. It’s going to be day one. But day one really for Kamala was 31/2 years ago. Where has she been and why hasn’t she done it?”

Trump plans to press that line of attack on Monday, when he visits a York, Pennsylvania, manufacturing company. On the same day, GOP vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is scheduled to talk about the economy at a manufacturer in Philadelphia.

Most primary voters gave their votes to Biden and Trump earlier this year. But J.J, Balaban, a Philadelphia-based Democratic strategist and ad maker, said most Americans still didn’t want to see a 2020 rematch.

“Whatever party could deliver what the American people wanted would reap the reward,” Balaban said. “The Republican Party proved itself unable to deliver on that pretty clear expressed desire, and it looked like the Democratic Party would also not be able to do so. But obviously things changed last month. And so, at one level, it’s not surprising to see the polls shift as they have shifted.”

Recent polling showed that the enthusiasm gap between the two parties disappeared once Harris replaced Biden atop the Democratic ticket.

In a Monmouth University poll, 92% of Democrats were enthusiastic about Harris, more than the 84% who said the same about Trump. In February 80% of Republicans were enthusiastic about Trump, but just 62% of Democrats said they felt the same about Biden.

Last week’s Pew Research Center survey reported similar findings, with 62% of Harris supporters and 64% of Trump supporters backing their candidates strongly. A month earlier, while 63% of Trump supporters were strong backers of their nominee, just 43% of Biden supporters said the same of their candidate.

And 57% of voters in the Monmouth poll said they were confident in Harris’ physical and mental stamina to serve as president.

As for Trump, 51% said they were not confident he had the stamina, compared with 47% who said he did.

“As a Democrat, it is amusing to see the Republicans flounder and deal with them having to defend a candidate who is both very old and considered old news by the electorate,” Balaban said.

For the Democrats, already riding a high, the convention offers Harris and Walz a unique opportunity to deliver their message to the public at a time when Americans will be tuning in to politics and voters are just getting to know the Democratic candidates, Koning said.

“This is a really important period of time for the Democratic Party to present both Harris and Walz as a ticket and not only try to unify their own voters and their party base, but also to show those voters in the middle why they should vote for her,” she said.

Though Gov. Josh Shapiro isn’t on the ticket, the convention still will be an important showcase for him. The speaking schedule hasn’t been announced yet, but a plum speaking slot and rip-roaring speech could ensure the governor is in the conversation the next time the Democrats need a new presidential nominee.

That was the case for New York Gov. Mario Cuomo in 1984 and Illinois state Sen. Barack Obama in 2004.

“These are, for rising stars in the party, a tremendous venue to bolster your standing,” Muhlenberg College political science professor Christopher Borick said. “That goes, of course, for Josh Shapiro, whose standing has been elevated dramatically during the vice-presidential selection process. Ultimately not getting the nod makes his convention speech important for his national brand. Does he give the type of speech that gets the attention Obama did in ‘04?”

For Pennsylvanians, it would have been nice to have Shapiro running this year, but Walz was a good choice as well, Zipin said.

“Josh is an amazing governor and he has a long political future ahead of him,” Zipin said. “I”m really glad he’s staying in Pennsylvania. He has unfinished business to do. Kamala had many good choices, so as much as it would have been nice to have Josh on the ticket, Walz is great, and I’m glad Josh will remain our governor.”