Ukraine plotted incursion to throw Kremlin off balance

Ukraine had been weighing several possibilities for an attack that would shock the leadership in Moscow and put President Vladimir Putin on the backfoot before storming across the border last week, according to a Western official familiar with the planning.

With Ukraine’s military on the defensive and Kremlin forces securing marginal gains this year, a cross-border attack had been weighed for some time before the surprise incursion into Russia’s western Kursk region a week ago, the official said on condition of anonymity.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top commander now says the military has seized control of about 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of the border region since the attack began, with Putin forced to grapple with more than 120,000 residents who’ve fled their homes as the incursion extends into a second week. The Institute for the Study of War put the Ukrainian advance at about 800 square kilometers.

While President Joe Biden’s administration and the European Union have given their blessing as the first military presence on Russian soil since World War II unfolds, NATO allies have so far withheld judgment. The leadership in Kyiv didn’t share specific information on the Kursk effort until it was well underway, according to a Western intelligence official who declined to be identified.

NATO allies don’t harbor reservations on the incursion, though consider it unlikely that Ukrainian forces will be able to hold Russian territory — even if it takes weeks for Moscow to force them out of Kursk, the official said. The action is at least crucial to show that Kyiv can challenge the Kremlin, according to a NATO official familiar with briefings on the Kursk action.

Potential risks

The wait-and-see approach aligns with the relative reticence of leaders among Ukrainian allies to comment on the move. The risks are clear for a fighting force that’s stretched across a front line of more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) from the eastern Donbas region to the mouth of the Dnipro river.

Diverting seasoned troops away from the fight as Russian forces close in on strategic positions could leave Ukrainians more vulnerable, according to an official.

Still, while the Kursk attack took Moscow and Western partners alike off guard, the planning for such an incursion implies that the move is part of a broader strategic plan.

Ukrainian forces have launched attacks on energy facilities well inside Russian territory, prompting warnings from Washington against using U.S. hardware for deep strikes. Kyiv has also overseen raids into Russia’s Belgorod region, next to Kursk, though with Russian anti-Kremlin volunteers.

This month’s attack is consistent with Washington’s policy on Ukraine’s use of American-supplied weapons to defend itself, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters last week. The E.U. also called the operation legitimate defense against a war of aggression.

“We support Ukraine in a war that is a defensive war and there is nothing to discuss here,” Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk told reporters in Warsaw on Tuesday. “I am aware and we all know what the risks are.”

Attacks have also involved sabotage. Ukrainian intelligence was behind an explosion of a freight train last year as it moved through a tunnel northeast of lake Baikal, extending its reach deep into Siberia.

But the Kursk action marks a new order of magnitude, involving a swathe of Ukraine’s grounds forces. Zelenskyy, who on Monday confirmed the attack for the first time, said Kyiv now controlled areas from which Russia had been launching strikes on the northeast Sumy region.

‘Drive out the enemy’

“Our operations are purely a security issue for Ukraine, to free areas near the border from Russian troops,” Zelenskyy said in an address to the nation.

Putin has vowed to “drive out the enemy” and secure the border. During a briefing Monday, the Russian leader cut off Kursk’s acting regional governor, who said Ukraine’s military had taken 28 towns and villages and forced the exodus of a sixth of the region’s population.

“You can tell us about the socio-economic situation and about helping people,” Putin told the official, Alexey Smirnov, as he signaled that fighting within Russia may spread.

Russia continued its attacks on Tuesday. Overnight missiles strikes disrupted power and gas supplies to parts of the Ukrainian city of Sumy, across the border from Kursk.