The best NFL futures to bet right now (including a Jets Super Bowl)
We are months away from NFL training camps opening, much less the regular season, and yet trades, free agent signings and the just-concluded draft have, as usual, primed the anticipation and excitement. Let’s take advantage of the uncertainty at this point in the offseason to look for value in NFL futures, exploring key storylines and potential breakthroughs for the season ahead.
New York Jets to win the AFC
+1400 at FanDuel
Nothing went right for Gang Green’s offense in 2023 after quarterback Aaron Rodgers, a four-time MVP, went down for the season with a torn Achilles during his first drive with the team. Now that he’s healthy, expect the Jets’ offense to take a step forward, particularly if their offseason reinforcements on the offensive line pay dividends.
That effort continued in the draft, when the Jets picked up first-rounder Olu Fashanu, an offensive tackle from Penn State. Their offensive focus continued in later rounds; they acquired Malachi Corley (WR, Western Kentucky), Braelon Allen (RB, Wisconsin), Jordan Travis (QB, Florida State) and Isaiah Davis (RB, South Dakota State) before turning to defense. The Post’s Mark Maske gave the Jets a B for the haul.
The defense, meanwhile, should be as good as it was last season despite the departure of edge rusher Bryce Huff, who signed with the Eagles. According to data from TruMedia, New York’s opponents scored nine fewer points per game than expected last season after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each play - the second-best mark after the Cleveland Browns. Analyst Mike Clay rated the Jets’ roster as the league’s second-best heading into the draft.
In addition, New York should face one of the easiest schedules, based on the opening win totals offered by various oddsmakers. The Jets’ average opponent is expected to win eight games next season. Only the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Chargers will face opponents whose average win total is below eight.
Using this data, known opponents and betting win totals, we can project the Jets’ most likely regular season records. For example, there is a 58 percent chance they win 10 or more games in 2024. From there, we can simulate the season (including the playoffs) for each AFC team 1,000 times, and determine that the Jets have an 8 percent chance to make the Super Bowl, which implies a fair price of +1100 (wager $100 to win $1,100). Anything over that - such as FanDuel offering a price of +1400 - represents value.
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs
+122 at FanDuel
The Houston Texans have been the talk of the AFC South, following their run to the divisional round of the playoffs behind first-year quarterback C.J. Stroud and their high-profile addition of Stefon Diggs. But they weren’t the only one team in their division that played at a high level last season. Two other teams, the Indianapolis Colts and Jaguars, were also above .500 and narrowly missed the playoffs.
You could knock the Jaguars for their late-season swoon - they started 8-3 before losing five of their last six, including their Week 18 finale at Tennessee with a playoff berth on the line - but the betting markets still see this division as very much in play, with no real front-runner.
The key for Jacksonville will be the maturation of quarterback Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NFL draft. Lawrence had ball-control issues last season (14 interceptions with seven lost fumbles) and dealt with health concerns (he left four games with injuries), yet he still managed to earn a slightly increased season grade from the game charters at Pro Football Focus. Plus, Coach Doug Pederson has said he is committed to getting Lawrence better protection and a more effective run game in 2024. The front office also added promising wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. at No. 23 in the draft. Even in the loaded AFC, the Jaguars are an intriguing playoff pick at these odds.
Pittsburgh Steelers under 8½ wins
+100 at DraftKings
The Steelers won 10 games last year despite a minus-20 point differential - a figure more fitting for an 8-win team. Pittsburgh was also 9-2 in games decided by eight points or less, a slim enough margin that a bad bounce or two could have easily flipped some wins to losses. The Steelers had the fewest expected points lost due to dropped passes (13.5), per data from TruMedia, and played with a lead just 25 percent of the time. In other words, they were lucky to win as many games as they did, a trait that typically reverses itself the following year.
Yes, it’s worth noting that the Steelers under Mike Tomlin have a reputation for winning close games and playing beyond their talent level, and it’s possible they’ve upgraded at quarterback with the additions of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields. Adding some offensive line help with early draft selections Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier could also make an impact. But they will also have to navigate the toughest strength of schedule of 2024 based on betting market win totals - a ledger that includes six games against their tough AFC North opponents, in addition to dates with the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the improved Jets.