Commentary: The case for UW QB Michael Penix Jr. as a first-round NFL draft pick
SEATTLE – On March 28, I stood behind New York Giants coach Brian Daboll and general manager Joe Schoen, while Michael Penix Jr. put on a show.
I watched a different one.
Because after each impressive Penix pass, Daboll provided punctuation. The 49-year-old former offensive coordinator shook his head in disbelief. Or he turned to stare at Schoen, in search of silent affirmation. Or he instinctively clapped his hands, applauding a Penix completion. Here was an NFL coach, turned momentary admirer.
And if Daboll’s body language didn’t speak loudly enough, consider his company. The Giants were the only NFL team to send its coach to the Huskies’ pro day. He was joined by Schoen (one of two GMs in attendance), offensive coordinator Mike Kafka and passing game coordinator/quarterbacks coach Shea Tierney as well.
It’s possible the Giants were simply doing due diligence, or that they had arranged cross-country flights to visit wide receiver Rome Odunze, an obvious option for the No. 6 overall pick in the NFL draft, which begins Thursday night. It’s possible they’re praying Penix slides to No. 47 in the second round, or that they’re impressed … but uninterested.
Regardless, the Giants – who have quarterbacks Daniel Jones, Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito under contract – got me thinking about Penix’s perplexing projections. How many players could conceivably land at No. 6, No. 47 … or anywhere in between?
On Monday, ESPN’s Adam Schefter wrote “there now is speculation Penix could go as high as No. 8 to the Falcons.” Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer stated that the Las Vegas Raiders at No. 13 have been “marked by a few other teams as one to watch on Penix,” while adding there’s “some belief in league circles” the Seahawks could snag him at No. 16.
But most mock drafts still slate the proven passer as a second-round pick, citing the same concern.
“We’re talking about the first four picks in the draft being quarterbacks,” ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky said the day after Penix’s pro day. “If not for the four season-ending injuries that Michael Penix has had previous to Washington, we would be talking about the first five picks being quarterbacks. He’s that good. He’s that talented.”
Orlovsky knows what Daboll knows, what you and I know, what former USC quarterback (and soon-to-be No. 1 overall pick) Caleb Williams knows, what fans of the Oregon Ducks and Washington State Cougars wish they never knew:
Penix has the arm strength, accuracy, intellect, processing ability and leadership traits to be a top-five pick.
The Tampa, Florida, product proved it in a dominant two-season stretch – setting UW records for passing yards in a season, passing yards in a game and total offense while leading the nation in passing in back-to-back years. He won the Maxwell Award – which honors the nation’s most outstanding player – in 2023, while finishing as the runner-up for the Heisman Trophy (the highest finish of any Husky).
More important, he went 25-3 at Washington – including a Sugar Bowl win over Texas, a Pac-12 championship and a combined 5-0 record against Oregon and WSU.
He helped transform a 4-8 team, one touchdown at a time.
“I mean, the dude can flat-out spin it,” Williams said on The Pivot podcast this week. “I say it to people when they ask me, ‘Who’s (on) your top list?’ Michael Penix is right up there. I’ve seen him do it right in front of me, spin it. You’ve seen it on TV. He’s one of my favorite guys in this draft class.”
But, the injuries.
Cue the copy-and-paste caveat, the unshakeable shadow, the constant question mark. The 6-foot-2, 216-pound passer’s four seasons at Indiana each ended with injuries – torn ACLs in 2018 and 2020, and shoulder injuries in 2019 and 2021. He played 20 games in four campaigns.
The narrative, then, is that NFL teams are wary of investing in an injury-prone passer at their most important position.
But is that really true?
“There’s some guys who have medical question marks. Michael Penix, surprisingly, is not one that I’m hearing about,” Schefter said on “The Pat McAfee Show” this week. “He’s got a basic clean bill of health for a lot of teams.”
That, and a fresh perspective, gained from four seasons of scar tissue and rigorous rehabs.
On Monday, Penix penned a letter published by The Players’ Tribune, directly addressing his injuries.
“Truth is, I’d be more worried if I had never been injured. We don’t all come back the same,” he wrote. “I can’t speak for those that have never gone through anything. But I can speak on me. I’ve seen how deep my foundation is. I know the storms I’m prepared to weather. For most people that’d be the end of their story. But there’s more to my story, and I own every page of it.”
Truth is, football is an unavoidable, violent sport. But the biggest reason Penix started 28 consecutive games in Seattle is because he was rarely hit, due to a confluence of factors. UW’s offensive line – led by tackles Troy Fautanu and Roger Rosengarten – was named the top unit in college football last fall and surrendered 19 sacks the past two seasons. But Penix’s ability to shift protections and maneuver the pocket played a significant part as well.
Which brings us to a longstanding misconception: Penix’s mobility (or lack thereof). It’s easy to scan his 265 rushing yards over six collegiate seasons and conclude he can’t scoot. And yet he tallied a 40-yard dash between 4.46 and 4.56 seconds – depending on your stopwatch – at Washington’s pro day.
Penix primarily uses his legs to accent his arm – to sidestep a rusher, reset and rip a touchdown to Ja’Lynn Polk against Texas; to spin out of a sack, drift left and locate Devin Culp in the corner of the end zone against USC.
Rushing statistics can’t encompass Penix’s athleticism and mobility.
Truth is, they never could.
“He’s played quarterback since he was 6 or 7 years old. He was the only quarterback I knew at that age that would stay in the pocket,” Penix’s father, Michael Penix Sr., told The Times in 2022. “Because most quarterbacks would take off running at that age. It was crazy, people used to tell him to run, because he was the fastest person on the field. But he’d just stand back there and wait for his man to come open. He just had no worries and no fears in the pocket.”
In the pocket, Penix inflicts fear. He flat-out spins it, as they say. He outlasts injuries and detractors and Oregon Ducks. Whether via pass rushers or seismic stakes, he welcomes pressure. He puts on a show.
All of which is why Penix is worthy of a first-round pick.
Come Thursday, will the Seahawks – or Falcons, or Raiders, or Giants – say the same?