Two-minute drill: Washington State’s keys to victory against No. 9 Oregon
PULLMAN – Here’s what to watch for when Washington State visits No. 9 Oregon on Saturday afternoon.
When Oregon has the ball …
On offense, Oregon’s leader might be quarterback Bo Nix, but just as important might be the five offensive linemen who keep him upright: left tackle Josh Conerly Jr., left guard Marcus Harper II, center Jackson Powers-Johnson, right guard Steven Jones and right tackle Ajani Cornelius.
That group ranks second nationwide in Pro Football Focus’ pass-blocking rankings, grading out at 89.4. This season, it’s given up just one sack, which went to Conerly . Otherwise, the Ducks’ front five has yielded just seven pressures. That has given Nix an average of 2.40 seconds to throw, tops among Pac-12 starting quarterbacks.
Washington State’s challenge is simple: Find a way to get pressure on Nix. That way, he doesn’t have as much time to find receivers like Troy Franklin and Tez Johnson, Gary Bryant Jr. and Traeshon Holden. As always, those responsibilities go to the Cougars’ star edge rushers, Ron Stone Jr. and Brennan Jackson. WSU’s pass rush ranks fifth in the conference.
Stone might be able to take advantage of his matchup. If there’s anything resembling a weak link on Oregon’s offensive line, it’s Conerly , a first-year starter who has allowed 10 pressures total: eight hurries, one hit, one sack. He’s coming off his most forgettable outing of the year, Oregon’s narrow loss to Washington last week, when he graded out at just 27.7 in pass-blocking.
That’s one matchup Washington State might exploit. Finding others is a little more difficult. In its blowout loss to Arizona last week, WSU yielded 174 rushing yards. The Cougars must be better against the run against the Ducks.
Washington State will face the Pac-12’s highest-graded rushing team this week. The Ducks’ featured back is Bucky Irving, a 5-foot-10, 194-pounder who has piled up 520 rushing yards and five touchdowns this fall. Also in on Oregon’s rushing attack is sophomore Jordan James, the team’s highest-graded rusher, a short-yardage back who has eight touchdowns .
“Every running back isn’t good without their offensive line,” WSU defensive lineman David Gusta said. “The offensive line is something that we need to control. And definitely for me, Nusi (Malani), Na’im (Rodman), our starting four, it’s not something that we’re really worried about. We stopped it last week. We just gotta get some backer fits in, and I’m not really worried about it too much.”
Worried or not, the Cougars could help their cause by forcing a turnover or two. They failed to do so last week against Arizona, which had few issues driving down the field for long, extended series. WSU will need to tackle better against Oregon – the Cougars missed 17 tackles in their loss to the Wildcats – particularly in space, where the Ducks will look to take advantage of their speed.
One area WSU could tip the scales, though, is on fourth down. Under second-year head coach Dan Lanning, Oregon has become ultra-aggressive on fourth down. Thanks to research from the Oregonian, here are the Ducks’ numbers on fourth down under Lanning, who took over before the 2022 season.
Total: 28 of 44
•16 of 20 on fourth-and-1
•6 of 7 on fourth-and-2
•1 of 6 on fourth-and-3
•5 of 11 on fourth-and-(at least)-4
•1 of 6 on fourth-and-goal
Those are encouraging numbers, but in Oregon’s loss to Washington last week, Lanning caught some serious backlash for going for it three times on fourth down – all of which resulted in incomplete passes.
If the Cougars can get the Ducks in some of those situations, fourth-and-short or even fourth-and-medium, they could steal a possession – and some momentum.
When Washington State has the ball …
The Cougars can count on seeing one thing when their offense takes the field Saturday: Oregon in a rush-three, drop-eight scheme, maybe with a spy on quarterback Cameron Ward. That’s the look that thwarted their offense in each of their past two losses, and it’s had a direct impact on not only their offense – but on every phase of their game.
The one way for WSU to beat that scheme is to run the ball. The Cougars haven’t done so in six games, not consistently, at least. WSU’s running game woes have been so drastic that defenses have all but abandoned the box, dropping back in coverage, where Ward has nowhere to go. That led to his interception last week, and the two he threw the week prior, in a loss to UCLA.
The Cougars have tried a few things to mimic a running game and force defenders to draw closer to the line of scrimmage. They’ve tried bubble screens. They’ve tried quicker throws. None has unlocked their offense.
“We’re not getting those quick results, either, because that’s an extension of the running game,” Dickert said of the loss to Arizona.
Against an Oregon defense that features stars such as edge Brandon Dorlus, cornerback Khyree Jackson and safety Steve Stephens, the Cougars’ plan will likely include getting running backs Nakia Watson and Jaylen Jenkins going, but that might be asking a lot against a defense that ranks No. 22 nationwide in stop percentage, the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs.
If that plan fails, the Cougars can help themselves out by limiting penalties, an issue that loomed large against Arizona. They can also be a little more patient. Maybe Ward takes the underneath routes and WSU marches up the field in more methodical ways.
Receiver Lincoln Victor should be back close to 100% after injuring his ankle a few weeks ago, Dickert said. Starting tight end Cooper Mathers might give it a go, too.
WSU’s path to an upset will likely need to include a running game of some form. The Cougars haven’t shown one yet. They could pick a good time to do so on Saturday.
“I think (it’s) definitely just mentality. The want to finish, the effort,” freshman wideout Carlos Hernandez said. “I think during the Arizona game, we put our heads down, down two touchdowns. That wasn’t a good mentality for us. I think a different mentality is just wanting to get better and wanting to push forward to the game, keep on going, keep our head up high.”