Commentary: Kraken still have much to prove, even with a playoff run under their belt
SEATTLE – When you play 23 seasons, and in 1,731 games, you learn things.
You learn that the escalators between peaks and valleys can operate at Mach speed. Meeting, exceeding or falling short of expectations can be as fickle as a dice roll. And though the good times are often the product of hard work, they are fleeting.
Kraken general manager Ron Francis knew this when he was asked a question last April about the precedent his team set by reaching the playoffs in its second season.
What would you tell fans wondering if this success can be repeated for years on end?
“I would tell them to enjoy the moment,” Francis said. “Listen, year to year, there are so many variables that go into it – injuries, bad breaks, bad bounces, what have you. … I can’t project what’s going to happen moving forward.”
That might not be the rousing response the average face-painted fan would want to hear from the Kraken’s top executive, but it’s in line with the nature of professional sports. Which leads to the pertinent question as the franchise’s third season is set to begin: Was last year a harbinger of things to come, or a tease to be followed by regression?
If you followed this hockey team over the years, you know its second-year surge was among the steepest in NHL history. From 27-49-6 and the third lowest point total in the league (60) in Year 1, to 46-28-8 (100 points) and a playoff berth in Year 2 – the Kraken captured Seattleites’ fandom and the league’s attention. Said fandom and attention spiked exponentially after the Kraken upset the Stanley Cup-champion Avalanche in the first round and took Dallas to a Game 7 in the second.
It was, in a way, the ideal result for fever-building: take over this already rabid sports town for a month, but leave the die-hards wanting more.
So will they get it?
Well, it’s worth pointing out that the Kraken did not have a player in the top 50 in the NHL in points last year. Jared McCann was tied for 14th in the league with 40 goals, but the next highest was rookie Matty Beniers at 81st with 24 goals.
You could take this one of two ways: The first is that the Kraken lack the star power to rely on if they’re ever in a crunch. The other is that – given how they were fifth in the league in goals per game last year – they are virtually immune to one key injury wrecking their season.
Perhaps this was best exemplified after McCann suffered an injury in Game 4 in the first round against Colorado, causing him to miss the rest of the contest along with the next six. Seattle’s record over that stretch? If you count the game Jared got hurt, 5-2.
Still, the law of averages would suggest that, after jumping from 60 points one year to 100 to the next without a ton of significant additions, Seattle might drop off. They did struggle mightily against playoff-caliber teams in the second half of last season and lost fourth-line standouts Daniel Sprong (21 goals, 25 assists) and Ryan Donato (14 goals, 13 assists) to free agency. They also parted ways with goalie Martin Jones, who went 27-13 last year while filling in for injured starter Philipp Grubauer – the netminder who dominated in the playoffs but went 17-14 in the regular season (and posted the 39th-best save percentage in the league).
Some questions. Should fans be optimistic that Beniers, winner of the Calder Trophy (top rookie), will improve upon last year? Maybe, but sophomore seasons can be challenging. Should fans be worried that defenseman Vince Dunn – whose 64 points were 29 more than he’d ever had in his six-year career – will slide back? Perhaps. Or maybe he just figured something out. And what about 19-year-old center Shane Wright, the No. 4 pick in the 2022 draft? Will he have a Beniers-like impact in the second year after he was selected?
Also, one has to wonder if the Kraken can match their 11.6% shooting from last year, which was second in the NHL. Just as one has to wonder (and the answer is probably yes) if the Sprong, Donato and Jones departures outweigh the team’s relatively tame free-agent acquisitions.
The Western Conference is loaded. Making the postseason again is far from a given, even with relative health.
The Kraken proved they could play with the NHL’s best after reaching the playoffs last year. But with just one quality season under their belt, they’re still a long way from proven.