Seeds of doubt: NCAA’s math doesn’t favor Gonzaga women with disparity between AP and NET rankings
LAS VEGAS – Gonzaga coach Lisa Fortier has bigger things on her mind than trying to understand how NCAA ranks its women’s basketball teams.
But it matters – a lot.
The NCAA’s NET rankings are the biggest single factor in determining where teams are seeded in March Madness. That’s a big deal for a GU squad that has a decent chance for a deep run this year.
However, no team in Division 1 has a greater disparity in how it’s perceived by humans and machines: The Zags are 15th in the latest Associated Press poll and 44th by the computer-generated NET ranking.
That’s a gap of 29 places, which translates to a whopping seven seed spots. If the AP poll were the sole metric, the Zags would be hosting first- and second-round games in the Kennel. But if you go strictly by NET, they would be an 11 seed and possibly consigned to a play-in game.
The truth is somewhere in the middle. But if history is any guide the Zags are looking at an 8 or 9 seed, even if they win the West Coast Conference tournament.
That means an experience like last year’s, when the ninth-seeded Zags beat Nebraska in the first round, then had to face top seed Louisville and a partisan crowd of 12,000.
Sure enough, in the latest edition of his bracket, Charlie Crème of ESPN has the Zags seeded eighth and facing Illinois in a foursome hosted by defending NCAA champ South Carolina.
So much for a deep run.
That’s frustrating news for a team that’s 27-3 overall with wins over nationally prominent teams such as Louisville and Tennessee. The Zags are also getting plenty of respect in the coaches’ poll (15th) and in RPI (12th).
But it’s the NET ranking that matters most.
“We’re always trying to schedule properly as far as NET goes,” Fortier said. “But we’re still trying to figure out that metric, and the NCAA won’t release the algorithm they use.”
However, their formula clearly puts a premium on strength of schedule. How else to explain that Oregon (17-13 overall and 3-7 in the Pac-12) is 20th in NET? Or that Iowa State (18-9 overall and 4-7 in the Big 12) is 16h?
Gonzaga’s schedule strength currently ranks 77th. As usual, it’s dragged down by its colleagues in the WCC.
Overall, the WCC ranks ninth, far behind power conferences such as the Pac-12 and others. It also doesn’t help that Gonzaga’s lone conference loss came at the hands of a Santa Clara squad that ranks 133rd in NET.
On top of that, both Tennessee and Louisville have underperformed (though both are well ahead of the Zags in NET, at 15th and 26th, respectively).
Despite all that, the NCAA might consider that GU played shorthanded for most of the season but is now at full strength.