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Satellite imagery shows what could be Wagner’s future camp in Belarus

Members of Wagner group looks from a military vehicle in Rostov-on-Don late on June 24, 2023. Rebel mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin who sent his fighters to topple the military leaders in Moscow will leave for Belarus and a criminal case against him will be dropped as part of a deal to avoid "bloodshed," the Kremlin said on June 24. (Roman Romokhov/AFP/Getty Images/TNS) (Roman Romokhov)
By Sarah Cahlan and Meg Kelly Washington Post

A satellite image captured Friday provides the first clear picture of the rapid construction of a camp to house thousands at an abandoned base in Belarus.

Local media reports and expert analysis on the timing of the sudden construction suggests the camp could have been built for incoming Wagner forces after their mutiny and subsequent withdrawal from Russia. The Washington Post was unable to independently verify the reports, and others cautioned about jumping to conclusions about the purpose of the camp.

A review of satellite imagery provided to the Post by Planet Labs reveals that more than 250 new tents, each measuring about 16 feet wide and 36 feet long, were assembled within one week at an abandoned military base near the village of Tsel in central Belarus.

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said Tuesday that he had offered Wagner forces part of an abandoned military base for housing, suggesting that some fighters were likely to relocate with the group’s founder, Yevgeniy Prigozhin. Prigozhin was granted safe passage to Belarus on Saturday, as part of a brokered deal to end the hours-long mutiny, though his current whereabouts are unclear.

“It’s certainly a big camping trip,” Hans Kristensen, director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American Scientists, who closely follows satellite imagery in the region, said after reviewing high-resolution satellite imagery from Friday.

The first signs of change at the site appeared on Monday. Within a day the structures had multiplied to several rows. The base was vacated by Belarusian forces in 2018. The Post also reviewed available visual material since 2011, which shows no tents in this area.

“The timing supports the view that the tents are linked to Wagner,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia nonproliferation program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, after reviewing the imagery for the Post.

A Belarusian media outlet posted to Telegram on Monday that residents reported “strange activity” near Tsel. One forestry worker told the outlet that “50 people from 13 nearby forestries were brought to build a camp for Wagner,” which would include “about 1,780 four-bed bunk beds and 400 … toilets.”

Still, it is not entirely clear who will occupy the tents.

“Mobilized Russian fighters have trained in Belarus since the end of last year. This could be a campground for them,” cautioned Ruslan Leviev, an analyst from the independent Russian monitoring organization Conflict Intelligence Team. “Wagner mercenaries themselves are still in the occupied territories. No one has been moved to Belarus yet.”

Catrina Doxsee, an associate director at the transnational threats project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, also urged caution, “particularly given the level of disinformation and obfuscation at play when dealing with Russia or Wagner.”

While it is difficult to say much from the image alone, Kristensen said, “if this were a Belarusian military exercise you would expect to see a lot of trucks, but this setup is almost entirely tents.”

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The Washington Post’s Alex Horton in Washington, Evan Hill in New York and Mary Ilyushina in Riga, Latvia, contributed to this report.