Analysis: What does Colorado’s move to the Big 12 mean for Washington State?

PULLMAN – Let’s cut straight to the point here: Colorado’s move to the Big 12 is hardly good news for Washington State.

The reasons number about a thousand, but the main one revolves around leverage. Washington State has little of it. Somewhere in the pecking order, the Cougars would certainly make an attractive candidate to join another power conference if the Pac-12 can’t negotiate a new media rights deal, but as things stand, they sit behind other schools.

For example: If the Big 12 wants to expand – the conference is at 13 teams, so all signs point toward expansion – commissioner Brett Yormark would likely reach for Pac-12 moneymakers Washington and Oregon first. Rumors are already circling that he’s looking to add Arizona. What would need to happen for the Big 12 to call WSU?

That’s the point, though: This entire situation is fluid. This story might be outdated by the time it makes print. So let’s outline a few scenarios for Washington State’s place in realignment: Best-case scenarios, worst-case scenarios and a funniest-possible scenario. All, of course, within reason.

Best-case scenario: Cougars join the Big 12Unlikely as this development might be, it isn’t entirely impossible, and without a doubt, WSU would fare the best as a result.

If Yormark added Washington State, he would gain a foothold in the Pacific time zone, a meaningful addition for a conference otherwise operating in the other three time zones. Of course, that comes with critical travel obstacles – for WSU to visit Central Florida for a road game, for instance, the Cougars would be flying about five hours across nearly 3,000 miles – but if WSU had the opportunity to join the Big 12, this would seem like a relatively small price to pay.

This part is entirely speculation, but WSU president Kirk Schulz previously worked as the president of Kansas State, last season’s Big 12 football champion. Could he be tempted to make a call to his previous employer?

Consider this, too: Washington State could bring in some serious TV numbers, which is what this is all about, mostly. Per a 2022 report from The Athletic, from 2015-2019 and 2021, national broadcasts televised 914 regular-season games that didn’t involve USC, UCLA (headed to the Big Ten), Oklahoma or Texas (headed to the SEC). Here’s the list of schools that eclipsed 1 million viewers, a number that TV networks value like gold:

1. Clemson (34 games)

2. Florida State (31 games)

3. Washington (28 games)

4. Oregon (26 games)

5. Miami (22 games)

6. Washington State (21 games)

Which gives us two takeaways: The Cougars can rack up TV numbers that matter to the powers that be (in that stretch, WSU averaged 1.59 million viewers per game, again according to The Athletic) which gives them a real chance at joining a conference like the Big 12. Still, in that department, they lag behind two other Pac-12 teams, which doesn’t exactly put them at the top of Yormark’s list – at least not among current Pac-12 schools.

For a second, though, let’s imagine this world: Oregon and Washington, the two biggest brands remaining in the Pac-12, join the Big Ten. The Pac-12 drops to seven teams, technically feasible but realistically impractical, which signals the conference’s demise and makes WSU the top candidate to join the Big 12.

That gives the Big 12 an even 14 teams, which Yormark is angling for, and he instantly flushes the Cougars’ program with cash from the league’s TV viewership – third among Power Five conferences last fall.

Worst-case scenario: WSU falls out of the Power Five, joining the Mountain WestWe mean no disrespect to the Mountain West when we frame this situation with that verbiage, but face the music: If the current Pac-12 continues to fall apart, and Washington State doesn’t receive an invite to another power conference, the Cougars could be looking at membership in the Mountain West.

Most important, this would seriously hurt WSU’s pockets. Under the Mountain West’s current media rights deal, each team (besides Boise State) received $1.1 million per year. That would be a crippling drop-off from the Cougars’ profit from the most recent Pac-12 media deal: $37 million.

You don’t need to be a brain surgeon to understand how much that would change WSU’s athletic department and its ability to operate like a power program.

Geographically, this might make more sense than the Cougars’ potential move to the Big 12, and it might enable them to win at a higher level.

Washington State could likely rack up 10 wins in a Mountain West schedule .

But would WSU Athletic Director Pat Chun and Schulz green-light such a move?

Funniest possible scenario: WSU goes independent and barnstorms the countryWhile we’re in the business of imagining universes, let’s toss realism out the window for a moment and try this one: WSU goes fully independent, a la Notre Dame, and travels across the country to take on teams of every conference.

In Week 2, the Cougars travel to Morgantown to square off with West Virginia, then they hop on a plane for Tallahassee to play Florida State.

Imagine the surprise of the Seminoles, who might ordinarily be playing a money game, hosting someone like The Citadel or Charleston Southern. Nope! The Cougars are coming to town, and they’re eating Ferdinand’s on the plane ride there.

This might also allow WSU to revisit fun matchups that would otherwise be difficult to schedule. How about an annual Battle of the Palouse? A game against Boise State, which has only happened six times ? A best-of-three series with Wisconsin, the former home of WSU head coach Jake Dickert?

The possibilities seem endless. We’ll know soon enough if any come to fruition.