Analysis: Evaluating Mariners players’ trade value as MLB trade deadline nears
PHOENIX – As much as they try, they can’t escape it. It’s everywhere. It’s on the social media they scroll through on their phones. It’s on at least one if not all the televisions in every clubhouse they enter.
“Change the channel, who has the damn remote?” was heard a few days ago in Minnesota.
There’s either anticipation or anxiety that permeates from a team in the days leading up to the Major League Baseball trade deadline. For teams pushing for the postseason, the excitement of who might be added is palpable. For teams with no postseason hopes, there’s the uncertainty of not knowing, which teammate might be moving somewhere new or being the one that’s moved.
“It’s probably the most uncomfortable week of the year for me — the week leading up to the trading deadline,” Servais said. “You want to be in a position where it does matter your team. We are in a position where it does matter. You want to add and figure out ways that we can get better. I’ve been in those discussions and in those meetings, so I know how hard it is to make trades, especially when you don’t have a lot of sellers. It’s extremely hard to make trades. There are just less players that are accessible out there.”
A year ago, there was obvious anticipation. The Mariners, on the strength of a 22-3 run going into the All-Star break, including a 14-game winning streak, were going to add to the team in an effort to end a 21-year postseason drought.
This season, there’s apprehension. The Mariners know they have been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Their 53-50 record is a product of going 15-8 in July. But even with the recent success, they came into Saturday 4.5 games out of the third wild-card spot with four teams ahead of them.
Servais referenced the two common labels for teams at the deadline: buyers or sellers.
But can a team be both? Well, Jerry Dipoto, Mariners president of baseball operations, believes it’s possible. And it seems to his likely path in the days ahead, trying to capitalize on a seller’s market while also making the Mariners better, though not necessarily for the immediate future.
For several players still on the team, this deadline is starting to feel a little bit like the 2021 season. On the night of July 26, they rallied from an early seven-run deficit against the hated Houston Astros, highlighted by Dylan Moore’s eighth-inning grand slam, in an emotional 11-8 win. They’d won four straight games to improved to 55-46 and moved to within a game of the second wild-card spot.
The next day Seattle traded popular closer Kendall Graveman, who was going to be a free agent after the season, along with reliever Rafael Montero, who had been recently designated for assignment, to the Astros in exchange for infielder Abraham Toro and reliever Joe Smith.
Dipoto said at the time: “We have been pretty open in sharing the idea that we’re trying to both address present and future.”
It was a move that left several players questioning the overall intentions of the organization and that many believed cost them a postseason berth.
Could it happen again this season? Absolutely.
Players know that this team isn’t in the same position as last year. They hope their recent run of good baseball will convince Dipoto to keep the group together.
Closer Paul Sewald, who could be the next Graveman, called it “baseball limbo” and said, “We did this to ourselves with how we played in the first 100 games. We should understand by now that it’s a business.”
Until then they have to deal with the speculation they can’t escape.
“You come into the clubhouse and rather see ‘The Office’ or ‘Parks and Rec,’ but it’s on MLB Network every day,” Cal Raleigh said. “You know something’s going to happen. We don’t know what. It is out of our control. We want to be in this thing. We don’t want to be giving anybody away. We want to be adding, not subtracting.”
As part of that speculation, here’s a look at the trade value of certain Mariners players and the likelihood they are traded at the deadline.
Thanks for calling, but you wasted your time
• Julio Rodriguez
• Cal Raleigh
• George Kirby
• J.P. Crawford
Teams are built by being strong up the middle. These four have proven to be foundational pieces for their production, leadership or some combination of both. Crawford has been the Mariners’ best overall player this season and has taken ownership of the team in a way that players Nelson Cruz, Kyle Seager and Mitch Haniger have in the past. Raleigh hasn’t produced as much at the plate as had hoped. But finding a quality catcher with leadership skills and his power is almost impossible.
In his second big-league season, Kirby has only scratched the surface of what he could be at the MLB level. He also has the attitude, swagger and fiercely competitive nature to be a projected ace.
Rodriguez has suffered through some sophomore slumps, but these last few games have shown how impactful he is for the team’s offense. You don’t trade a potential superstar in his second year in the big leagues.
Don’t be surprised, if they are moved
• Paul Sewald, RHP
• Teoscar Hernandez, OF
• Tom Murphy, C
When the Astros re-acquired Graveman from the White Sox Friday, giving up their top catching prospect Korey Lee, it only solidified the expectation of Sewald being traded in the coming days. Graveman, 32, has made 45 appearances, posting a 3-4 record with eight saves and a 3.48 ERA. In 44 innings pitched, he’s struck out 42 batters and walked 20. He’s owed what’s left on his $8 million salary this season and is owed $8 million for 2024.
Sewald, 33, has made 45 appearances, posting a 3-1 record with 21 saves and a 2.93 ERA. In 43 innings pitched, he’s struck out 60 batters with 14 walks. In his second year of arbitration eligibility, he’s making $4.1 million this season and likely won’t make more than $7.5 million in 2024.
Last year, there were 10 catchers with MLB service time moved at the trade deadline. Contending teams love to add catching depth, particularly catchers that can hit. Murphy, who will be a free agent after this season, has a .345/.391/.741 slash line with five doubles, six homers and 12 RBI since June 1. His 209 weighted runs created plus (wRC+), an all-encompassing stat to measure offensive production with 100 being league average, leads all catcher in MLB. The next closest is Willson Contreras at 167.
Murphy got emotional at the thought of being moved at the deadline. The organization acquired him, helped him become established in MLB and didn’t jettison him when he battled injuries. He wants to remain with the organization beyond this season.
Hernandez was acquired with the knowledge that he was going to be a free agent after the season. He hasn’t done enough at the plate for the Mariners to want to engage in extension talks. But his power potential and past numbers will draw interests from teams like the Yankees and Twins, who need outfield help.
The only true way to recoup value after the season is to offer Hernandez a one-year qualifying deal and hope that he declines it so you get a compensatory draft pick after the first round.
Found money is easily spent, er, traded
• Gabe Speier, LHP
• Tayler Saucedo, LHP
• Justin Topa, RHP
All three relievers are having solid seasons in the Mariners bullpen after being under-the-radar acquisitions in the offseason. Topa was acquired in a trade with the Brewers for minor leaguer Joseph Hernandez, while Saucedo and Speier were waiver claims. They represent the type of discount depth with club control that contending teams like to add as peripheral moves. The Mariners’ success in finding castoffs from other teams and helping them find success is a reason why they are willing to trade relievers.
It’ll cost you
• Bryce Miller, RHP
• Bryan Woo, RHP
The Mariners’ two rookie right-handers have exceeded expectations after being forced into the starting rotation. Both pitchers have concerns about overall usage for the season, so their value to a contending team isn’t quite as high if they can’t pitch in the postseason. But for teams like the Cardinals, who are trying to address needs for next season, they are definitely trade targets. For the Mariners to give up a talented rookie pitcher with five more years of club control, they would need something of equal value to make that deal.
It’ll cost you … a lot
• Logan Gilbert, RHP
Multiple reports had the Cardinals engaging the Mariners about a potential trade for Gilbert. And if the Mariners are willing to do more than listen on offers, other teams are going to jump into the fray. Gilbert represents a pitcher who can impact the postseason this year and fill needs for seasons to come. He’s got four more years of club control — all arbitration-eligible.
The Mariners don’t really want to trade him, but they’ll listen to offer and ask for the world in case someone is desperate/dumb enough to give it to them.
It’s a weird thought, but …
• Luis Castillo, RHP
• Ty France, 1B
• Eugenio Suarez, 3B
• Matt Brash, RHP
Castillo probably belongs on the untouchable list. But despite his obvious talent and ability to dominate, as evidenced by the postseason, he also hasn’t been the workhorse ace that some fans envisioned. The Mariners have a 16-18 record in his starts since being acquired.
The contract extension he signed with Seattle — 5-years, $108 million — is actually pretty reasonable compared to what a pitcher with his talent would cost on the free agent market. Would the Mariners get a four-prospect haul like they gave up to get him?
France will be second-year arbitration eligible next season and will get a raise on his $4.1 million salary from 2022. Given some of the inconsistency he’s shown this season, it’s fair for the Mariners to wonder what his impact will be in the next two seasons.
Suarez, who recently turned 32, will be in the final year of his contract next season. His power numbers have regressed while his strikeout numbers are steady, which would scare teams off. Given the $11 million he’s owed next season, the Mariners would have to eat money to move him.
Brash has had some bad luck on some balls in play, but its also been coupled with some walks and wild pitches as well. He’s still extremely talented with stuff that makes scouts and pitching coaches drool.
As a scout said: “If they want to trade a guy that strikes out 40 percent of the batters he faces with that sort of stuff, we’ll take him.”
It’s unlikely the Mariners want to trade him. But he might have to be a part of a package to acquire an impact hitter at the deadline or this offseason.
DFA’d, not dealt
• AJ Pollock, OF
• Kolten Wong, IF
There’s a chance they could remain as role players in the months ahead, but the Mariners could opt to give younger players those opportunities instead. They were failed acquisitions this past offseason.
If they were to add, what prospects might be packaged …
• Emerson Hancock, RHP
• Harry Ford, C
• Cole Young, IF
• Gabriel Gonzalez, OF
• Walter Ford RHP
• Lazaro Montes, 1B/OF
• Prelander Berroa, RHP
You have to give up talent to get talent. Most of the Mariners’ top prospects like Ford, Young and Gonzalez have yet to reach the Double-A level so there is still a bit of an unknown aspect to them. Hancock is certainly a pitcher that could be moved in a deal for a hitter.