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NATO to offer Ukraine fast path to join when conditions met

From left, President Joe Biden, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg and Lithuania’s President Gitanas Nauseda attend the first work session as part of the NATO summit, in Vilnius on July 11. NATO leaders will grapple with Ukraine’s membership ambitions at their summit on July 11 their determination to face down Russia boosted by a breakthrough in Sweden’s bid to join the alliance. (Tribune News Service)
By Natalia Drozdiak, Milda Seputyte and Andra Timu Bloomberg News

NATO members pledged to invite Ukraine to join the bloc “when allies agree and conditions are met” and to eliminate bureaucratic hurdles in order to speed up the process.

At a summit that began Tuesday in Vilnius, Lithuania, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine won’t need a so-called Membership Action Plan to prepare for joining, Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said at a press conference.

That commitment offers Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy a more concrete prospect of securing the full military protection of the U.S. and its allies, while falling short of the clear road map that he asked for. Zelenskyy earlier on Twitter criticized NATO for not setting a clear timeline on his country’s bid to join the alliance.

“There’s never been a stronger message from NATO at any time, and if you look at other membership processes there have never been timelines, they have been conditions-based,” Stoltenberg told reporters. He said removing the MAP would turn it from a “two-step process to a one-step process.”

Fifteen years ago, the alliance agreed that Ukraine would one day join, a pledge that proved insufficient to prevent the steady ramp-up of Russian hostility that led to last year’s invasion.

Allies have been grappling with how to move beyond that 2008 summit statement and some countries are concerned that they would limit their room for maneuver in future negotiations with the Kremlin if the pledge is too concrete, according to an official.

Russia’s war effectively puts a block on NATO membership for Ukraine, since extending the bloc’s collective defense commitments to Kyiv would bring the U.S. and its allies into direct conflict with Russia, and that’s a situation that western leaders aren’t prepared to countenance.

In a further boost for Ukraine’s long-term outlook, the Group of Seven nations are separately expected on the sidelines of the summit to offer Ukraine bilateral security commitments, aimed at bolstering Kyiv’s own defenses in the hope of deterring Russia from attacking again in the future.

The NATO allies themselves are due to commit to equipping Ukraine with modern weapons in the long-term, as well as providing training, sharing intelligence and supporting the development of the country’s defense industry. Each nation will provide different commitments, and other countries can join the arrangements, with specifics to be negotiated in future.

The language on membership is expected to form part of a broader package, including an upgrade to the formal status of NATO’s relationship with Ukraine via the Council, which will allow the country to directly take part in broader discussions about the alliance’s security and hold consultations with allies about its security concerns.

A MAP program outlines political and technical steps a country needs to take before joining NATO, but can often slow down the process of accession. In Ukraine’s case, allies will instead regularly review the country’s progress on corruption and other reforms.

NATO leaders are also expected to agree to a fund of $550 million a year in non-lethal aid to Ukraine, including help to modernize its military, rebuild military infrastructure and maintain modern equipment. The money will come largely from voluntary contributions but possibly also from NATO’s relatively small pot of common funding, which amounted to about $3.4 billion in 2023.

NATO diplomats have been wrangling over the membership wording for weeks, with some eastern members pushing for a concrete road map, while countries such as the U.S. have wanted to focus instead on immediate assistance to fend off Russia’s attack.

The diplomats wanted to settle the negotiations in advance of the summit and avoid letting leaders draft the statement, as in Bucharest in 2008. There’s a school of thought that the agreement thrashed out by leaders including George W. Bush and Nicolas Sarkozy was itself a strategic mistake that paved the way for the current conflict.

Back then, leaders agreed that Ukraine, as well as Georgia, “will become members of NATO” and stated the Membership Action Plan would be the next step but held back on formally launching any process. Putin, who also attended the summit, warned that NATO expansion would force Russia to respond with measures to protect its security and in 2022 tried to justify his invasion of Ukraine by linking it to the alliance’s enlargement.