Commentary: Why it’s hard to envision Sean Payton reviving Russell Wilson’s career

Bill Belichick. Greatest coach ever, right? Except he hasn’t done much of anything since Tom Brady left and produced just one winning season during his five years in Cleveland.

Larry Brown. Mr. Fix It, right? Except once the king of reclamations got to New York in 2005, he went 23-59 and the Knicks nixed him.

There are a host of similar examples throughout the sports landscape, where legendary coaches are reduced to some dude in a headset or suit based on the talent around him. Excuse the throat-clearing here, that’s just a long way of saying that Sean Payton isn’t going to fix Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos.

Yes, it’s been nearly a year since the Seahawks traded Wilson to Denver, but his name might still be the most resonant in Seattle sports. The man who helped lead Seattle to its sole Super Bowl victory has become a staple of schadenfreude for ex-fans salivating at his failures.

Perhaps we’ve reached a point where many of his former supporters simply feel sorry for the 34-year-old – particularly now that the Broncos’ performance won’t affect Seahawks draft picks. But for those still wishing ill on ol’ No. 3? They’re likely to keep getting their kicks.

At the end of last month, the Broncos gave up even more draft picks – this time to the Saints – so they could bring Payton on board as their coach. The thought was that the man who led New Orleans to a Super Bowl win in 2010 – and averaged 12 victories in his final four seasons – could bring that Big Easy magic to the Mile High City.

It should be noted, though, that Payton had Drew Brees as his quarterback during his 15-year tenure in Louisiana and got out just as Brees retired. He knew you need talent to win – and I’m reluctant to think he has it in Denver.

Wilson, as mentioned earlier, is 34 – which could still be considered “prime” for a traditional drop-back QB, but not so much for a signal caller who made his name as a scrambler who thrived with the read option. His rushing totals have been receding (although there was a slight uptick last season from 2021) – and a couple of years after complaining about how often he got hit behind the Seahawks’ offensive line, he took a league-high and career-high 55 sacks in Denver last season.

When you can’t escape the pressure, and you can’t hit receivers when you do (Wilson had a career-low 60.5 completion percentage last season), you simply aren’t an effective quarterback. Is this really going to get better as Wilson inches closer to 35?

It’s not as if the Broncos have copious salary-cap space to add impactful support. Wilson signed a five-year, $242 million contract extension with the Broncos that tied their financial flexibility into eagle-scout-level knots. Doubtful that free agency is going to save a team that went 5-12 last season.

But that’s OK, Denver can build through the draf … oh, wait. It lost first- and second-round picks to Seattle this year, gave up another first-round pick to the Saints for 2023, and a 2024 second-round pick to boot. Crafty GMs have constructed mammoth rosters in the late rounds before – the Legion of Boom-era Seahawks are proof – but pay dirt in those situations are rare. Denver seems doomed.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos haven’t made a significant coaching upgrade. Former coach Nathaniel Hackett seemed overwhelmed from the jump, something his clock management and last-second failed field-goal call in last season’s opener versus Seattle attested to. But to expect a four-, five- or six-win increase because of a new coach? Seems highly unlikely. Especially when you consider there were some not-so-rosy years for Payton in New Orleans – such as the three consecutive seasons in which the Saints went 7-9 from 2014-2016.

I do think football coaches are more valuable than coaches in any other major professional sport. And there have been Hall of Fame QBs such as Brees or even Aaron Rodgers who were on teams with subpar records that shot to the top of the standings the next season.

But neither – at least not while in their primes – was on a squad as lowly as last season’s Broncos, and neither was nearly as bad individually as Wilson was last season.

New adventures can be as enticing as they are exciting. Wilson likely foresaw instant success upon his move to Colorado and perhaps thought he could stick it to the Seahawks for not catering to his every whim. But fantasy and reality are often very different things.

There are a lot fewer clouds in Denver than there are here. But looking back, Wilson has to feel his situation in Seattle was much sunnier than he realized.