Mike Johnson may be the next House Speaker to lose his job

House Speaker Mike Johnson is ending 2023 with an ominous preview of what to expect in the new year: dissension in his ranks that threatens to hamstring deals on U.S. government funding, Ukraine war aid and border policy.

It could also cost him his job.

The Louisiana Republican, elected speaker in October after GOP hardliners ousted his predecessor for making deals with Democrats, sent the House home for the holidays on Thursday after passing a bipartisan defense policy bill over strong objections from 73 ultraconservatives.

“If we do things like what we did today, then the Freedom Caucus will absolutely be a problem,” Representative Bob Good of Virginia, the incoming chairman of that rebellious group, warned after the vote on the defense bill.

Good and his fellow Freedom Caucus members rejected the wide-ranging bill because it preserves the Pentagon’s abortion travel policy and extends controversial electronic spying, both of which they oppose.

The measure ultimately passed the House with more Democratic than Republican support.

Johnson had angered ultraconservatives last month when he averted a government shutdown by pushing through a short-term spending agreement that many considered eerily familiar to the one struck in September by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

That provoked a backlash from lawmakers on the right, who for weeks stalled action on spending bills.

Unlike McCarthy, Johnson will have a second chance at government funding when the House reconvenes just 10 days before a Jan. 19 fiscal deadline.

The only way to avoid a shutdown is to risk further inflaming hardliners by striking a quick deal with Senate Democrats and the White House. Such a deal will be difficult because Johnson is so far siding with conservatives in seeking a lower overall spending level.

At the same time, Johnson must sort out $66 billion in Ukraine aid and border policy, two issues that have become enmeshed amid GOP demands that any funding for Kyiv come with changes to U.S. immigration laws. Ultraconservatives say Ukraine aid should be shelved entirely until after the number of migrants crossing the U.S.-Mexico border declines.

House Foreign Affairs Chairman Michael McCaul said the Freedom Caucus is less influential on Ukraine aid, which has support from the majority of both parties, than on immigration, long a priority of ultraconservatives.

A conservative win on expediting the president’s authority to expel migrants, for instance, could insulate Johnson from a rebellion over Ukraine.

“I’ve always said the majority of the majority in both parties are going to be needed,” McCaul said.

But such talk of bipartisan coalition angers some of the conservatives.

It’s a minefield for the new speaker where one wrong step could shut down the House’s ability to conduct business and even threaten his job.

Rules Committee Chairman Tom Cole, a Johnson lieutenant, played down any real threat of an ouster.

Remove a speaker once, Cole said, and you’re making a policy point. “You do it a second time – you are just an assassin,” he added.

The Freedom Caucus, however, isn’t ruling anything out.

House Republicans, Good said, failed in 2023 to leverage their House majority “to force change on Washington as a whole and stand our ground with battling with the Senate.”

“That,” he added, “is why we have a new speaker.”