Zelensky unable to win over Congress as Biden’s Ukraine package stalls

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy failed on Tuesday to secure a breakthrough with Congress as it remains firmly deadlocked over President Biden’s request for additional U.S. military assistance for Ukraine, even though many lawmakers appeared to agree that the war’s outlook would only worsen without a continuation of American support.

Zelenskyy told lawmakers that his country will never give up in its fight to expel invading Russian forces, but he warned that without more aid, the conflict will turn far more brutal as his military inevitably cedes ground to its determined and well-armed adversary.

His visit to Washington, coordinated by the White House as Ukraine edges closer to running out of weapons and cash, coincided with the standoff on Capitol Hill, where Republicans have demanded sweeping changes to U.S. immigration law in exchange for granting Biden’s request for more than $60 billion to keep Kyiv supplied. It was the Ukrainian leader’s second time barnstorming the Capitol in the past three months, but his reception was comparatively cool as Republicans, notably in the House, increasingly say they outright oppose further spending to help his government.

In remarks at the White House after his morning sprint through the Capitol, Zelenskyy characterized the meetings as “more than positive” but also acknowledged that the Ukrainians would have to “separate words from results.”

“It’s very important,” he said, “that by the end of this year we can send very strong signal of our unity to the aggressor and the unity of Ukraine, America, Europe, the entire free world.”

Back home in Ukraine, where the war has slowed to a stalemate, Zelenskyy has faced his own political tumult as he seeks to project confidence and unity amid Russia’s merciless assault. Ahead of Tuesday’s meetings, the capital city fell victim to a cyberattack that crippled one of the country’s largest mobile operators and at least one bank, underscoring the sustained threat facing Ukraine’s statehood.

Biden, joined by a contingent of senior advisers, informed reporters in the Oval Office that the Kremlin intends to bombard Ukraine’s electrical grid over the coming months, as it did to devastating effect last winter. The president, describing the moment as an “inflection point in history,” reiterated his call to Congress to act without further delay.

Later, while standing beside Zelenskyy at a news briefing, Biden warned that Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is “banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine.”

“We must, we must, we must prove him wrong,” he said.

There seemed little hope of that in the near term, however.

Biden and Zelenskyy declined to detail Ukraine’s plans for the coming year, a top concern of Republicans. Biden also deflected a question about if and at what point the United States would urge Ukraine to negotiate with Russia to end the fighting.

“Winning means Ukraine is a sovereign, independent nation,” he said.

As senators emerged from their private discussion with Zelenskyy, Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., said the Ukrainian leader had invoked the term “guerrilla warfare,” alluding to the bloody, unconventional tactics employed by insurgents against occupying U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq, and suggested that’s where the conflict could be headed if Ukraine loses U.S. military assistance. Johnson called that “a lose-lose proposition for everybody.”

“So the sooner this thing ends, the better,” he said, though he quickly added that he remains troubled about “adding fuel to the flame.”

Other senators affirmed that Zelenskyy’s speech, however impassioned, seemed unlikely to affect the impasse over U.S. border policy – or move them to approve additional Ukraine aid without it – before lawmakers recess next week for the holidays.

To date, Congress has allocated more than $111 billion to support Ukraine. Biden’s request for more is part of a larger emergency spending package that also would provide security assistance to Israel and Taiwan, and address long-running challenges at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, told reporters that without U.S. support, Ukraine would probably be “overrun” by Russian forces, causing the war to become “a NATO issue.” Within the alliance there remains considerable concern that, should Kyiv fall, Putin would set his sights on other former Soviet states, triggering a world war that inevitably draws in the United States.

“Nobody wants that,” Brown added.

Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer, D-N.Y., told reporters after the meeting that if Zelenskyy secures more U.S. assistance, “he can win.”

Although Zelenskyy received no formidable pushback from his audience, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said that “both parties are going to have to negotiate in some meaningful way rather than simply restating their positions over and over again.” He said there was little prospect that the two sides would reach an agreement on Ukraine aid in the next week. House members are expected to leave Washington by this weekend regardless.

Zelenskyy also met privately with House leaders, including Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La.,. Johnson characterized the meeting as “good,” telling reporters that he reiterated to Zelenskyy “that we stand with him and against Putin’s brutal invasion” but that the speaker also has made clear to the White House “that our first condition on any national security supplemental spending package is about our own national security.” No Ukraine aid without border reforms, he said.

On Capitol Hill, the dispute has become exceedingly acrimonious. Last week Zelenskyy was scheduled to virtually address a House and Senate briefing on Ukraine, but he canceled that appearance shortly before the gathering devolved into a shouting match over U.S. border policy and several Republicans stormed out.

Biden has signaled that he would be willing to accept significant immigration restrictions to get a deal. He said Tuesday that he is willing to work with Republicans to “fix the broken immigration system,” though he did not offer specifics.

“Compromise is how democracy works, and I’m ready and offered compromise already,” Biden said. “Holding Ukraine funding hostage in an attempt to force through an extreme Republican, partisan agenda on the border is not how it works. We need real solutions.”

Some lawmakers have said Congress ought to stay in Washington next week to continue hashing out an agreement.

“We shouldn’t leave here until we’ve figured out how to overcome our differences to support and continue our funding for Ukraine,” said Sen. Michael F. Bennet, D-Colo.. “We are going to run out of time.” The negotiation will only “get harder” if lawmakers delay the discussion, he said.

“My advice to the White House would be: The president made a commitment to Zelenskyy. To honor that commitment, they’re going to need to secure the border,” Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, said ahead of the Ukrainian leader’s appearance on Capitol Hill. “If I were the president, I would twist every Democrat arm and maybe some Republican arms, and say, ‘Get the job done.’ ”

Some lawmakers alluded Tuesday to the delicate line that both Ukraine and the White House have sought to walk: on the one hand, emphasizing that Kyiv needs an immediate infusion of assistance to stave off a Russian victory, and on the other, stressing the effectiveness of past assistance in severely degrading Russia’s capabilities.

One person familiar with a recently declassified assessment said Tuesday that the U.S. intelligence community believes Russia has lost about 87% of the forces and 63% of the tanks it had at the outset of the invasion in February 2022. The Ukraine war has set back by 15 years Moscow’s ability to modernize its ground forces, the person said, noting that the assessment was declassified at the request of Congress.

The loss of so many tanks – some 2,200 by U.S. estimates – has forced the Russians to draw on old Soviet stocks, increasingly deploying 1970s-era models, the person said.

Adrienne Watson, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, said that, in the past few months alone, Russia’s military has lost more than 13,000 troops and more than 220 combat vehicles along its offensive lines.

The Kremlin, she said, “seems to believe that a military deadlock through the winter will drain Western support for Ukraine and ultimately give Russia the advantage despite Russian losses and persistent shortages of trained personnel, munitions and equipment.”

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and other senior officials have stressed that congressional approval for the additional funding also is critical to maintaining U.S. military readiness by replenishing American stockpiles, which the Pentagon has drawn from to supply Ukraine.

Pentagon officials say that, while the administration retains authority to make more than $4 billion in additional donations of U.S. military equipment to Ukraine, only about $1 billion remains in funding to replenish America’s own arsenal when such shipments occur. “If we’re not able to replenish from our own stocks it makes it harder to provide Ukraine with what it needs on the battlefield,” a defense official said.

Upon meeting Zelensky, Biden announced that he had signed off on another $200 million drawdown. Last week, the administration announced $175 million in additional assistance to Ukraine, but it cautioned that without congressional approval, that would be some of the last aid it could provide.