Spin Control: Citing low voter turnout in north Spokane isn’t criticism, it’s just numbers

When used properly, statistics are neutral, neither positive nor negative, red or blue. Their perception, however, can be in the eye of the beholder.

So readers from north Spokane shouldn’t take umbrage at last week’s column that pointed out turnout in City Council District 1 was lower than the other two districts.

The turnout in the mayor’s primary for Council District 1, which is basically all precincts east of Division Street and north of Trent Avenue plus downtown north of the interstate, was about 25%, or 10 percentage points below the city’s other two districts. As mentioned in the column, District 1 didn’t have a council primary while the other two did, so that could have been a factor.

But as was also mentioned, the draw of the council primaries was probably not a big factor in those individual council primaries, considering hundreds of voters didn’t select a candidate in those races, while only dozens skipped the mayor’s race.

Historically, the turnout in District 1 runs between five to 10 points behind the city average and 10 to 15 percentage points behind that of the other two districts. This, even though the registration in District 1 is about 10,000 voters below that of the other two districts, so the number of ballots is being divided by a smaller number.

This isn’t a criticism of the area’s voter engagement. It’s mainly a reflection of the demographics. North Spokane has a younger and more transient population, which includes the Gonzaga students who pass through the area, along with a high number of apartments. Older voters and homeowners are more likely to be regular voters.

But under the doctrine of “if you can’t say something nice,” here’s the nice thing one can say about north Spokane voters: While their individual vote for mayor or city council president is equal to that of any voter in the other two districts, their individual vote for council candidate can be worth more – sometimes almost double.

That’s because the vote totals in District 1 council races can be about half the totals in the two other council districts, especially when the mayor is on the ballot. In the 2019 general election, there were about 12,500 votes for council candidates in District 1, compared to 26,000 for the District 2 race and 23,600 for the District 3 race. In 2011, the 12,700 votes in the District 1 council election were about 9,000 below the District 2 race and 8,000 below the District 3 race.

So while those voters might be harder to find, a smart candidate would be wise to keep in touch with the ones they find and do everything possible to motivate them to mark and mail their ballots.

Getting back to them

Republican legislators, concerned about reports of harassment to people gathering signatures for Referendum 101, wanted to know what Washington Secretary of State Steve Hobbs was going to do about it.

R-101 was an attempt to give voters the chance to block a new law that involves minors in shelters who are runaways or homeless.

Passed over vocal GOP opposition, some people fear it will result in some youth getting certain health care, including abortions or gender-affirming care, without parental notification.

As mentioned two weeks ago, Republican lawmakers wanted to know what Hobbs was going to do about these reports of harassment.

Hobbs replied late last week that the reports, which initially came from journalist Brandi Kruse, “raise deep concerns about the need to protect all voters’ rights to participate.”

But, he added, his office doesn’t have the authority to investigate or enforce possible violations of voting laws, and the Legislature hasn’t given his office the money to do investigations.

“I welcome your support for future legislation that advances this righteous cause,” Hobbs wrote.

Don’t be surprised to see a request along those lines next session from Hobbs, a long-time member of the Legislature before being appointed to the job that includes being the state’s chief elections officer. Hobbs is a Democrat but now has a good opening to prod Republicans to back legislation along those lines.