Analysis: Gonzaga keeping close eye on conference realignment shuffle

The Big 12? A reconfigured Pac-12/Mountain West? The West Coast Conference, Gonzaga’s home since 1979? The Big East?

If you’re wondering what might happen – or not happen – to Gonzaga in the flurry of conference realignment, join the crowd, which probably includes the Zags, too.

The carousel hasn’t stopped spinning. As events of the last week demonstrated, things can change in heartbeat.

It’s no secret Gonzaga has had discussions with the Big 12. The sides seemed to be getting cozier before the latest round of reshuffling saw Washington and Oregon bolt for the Big Ten and the Big 12 bring in Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah.

The Big 12 has 14 teams this season with the debut of BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati and Houston. They’ll be at 16 in 2024-25 with the addition of the Pac-12’s four corners schools and the exit of Oklahoma and Texas to the SEC.

The conference appears content at 16.

“Big 12 has ‘no appetite’ to add any (of the remaining Pac-12 schools Washington State, Oregon State, Cal and Stanford) or San Diego State,” tweeted Action Network college football insider Brett McMurphy, citing a source.

That likely puts Gonzaga and the Big 12 on the back burner, at least for now. Still, Big 12 Commissioner Brett Yormark, one of the biggest movers and shakers in realignment, has stated he wants the conference to be represented in all four time zones and that he’s “bullish on basketball.”

The Big 12’s current lineup in 2024-25 will have members in the Mountain, Central and Eastern, but not in the Pacific time zone.

Football drives the realignment bus, to the tune of an estimated 80% or more of the money involved in media-rights agreements. Yormark obviously understands that fact, but he believes basketball could enhance media-rights value.

Yormark has also discussed defending national champion UConn as a possible Big 12 addition.

“I’d like to double down if I can, without compromising football, and making basketball the catalyst for a lot of things we are doing,” Yormark told On3.com during Big 12 media days last month. “It’s not just about the TV partnerships and what the TV partners value basketball as, but for us, it’s how can basketball be a catalyst for growing the conference and the many initiatives we have.

“I look at it more holistically. I also like the fact that we are the No. 1 basketball conference in America. And if I can further cement that without compromising football it’s certainly something I need to explore.”

Perhaps the Big 12 stays at 16 down the road, but it’s hard to imagine Yormark abandons his pursuit of all four time zones and potential powerhouse additions to what is already considered college basketball’s best conference.

The next dominoes to fall might hit close to home with Washington State, Oregon State, Stanford and California figuring out their future paths. At the moment, the ACC appears to have cooled on the idea of adding Stanford and Cal.

Will the Pac-4 try to bring in some Mountain West programs or vice versa? What would the television package and financial arrangements look like?

It’s highly unlikely Stanford football will join the Mountain West. Would the Cardinal attempt to go independent in football? If so, where would the rest of Stanford’s outstanding athletic programs play – the WCC, like BYU did for 12 years before joining the Big 12, or elsewhere?

Will California and Stanford stay together? What happens to SMU, which was high on the Pac-12’s original expansion list?

It’s not clear if Gonzaga would be interested in some version of a Pac/Mountain West Conference if extended an invitation, but the school is no doubt watching developments closely.

The Zags turned down the Mountain West in 2018 to stay in the WCC, which agreed to allow conference teams that advance deeper in the NCAA Tournament to keep a larger portion of the revenue.

Gonzaga is a match in many ways with the Big East, a basketball-driven conference that boasts NCAA championships from Villanova in 2016 and 2018 and UConn last season. The geography remains daunting with Creighton, located in Omaha, Nebraska, the closest school to Spokane.

Gonzaga obviously doesn’t have to make a move. The Zags are an established national power after dominating the WCC for more than two decades. GU has played in the last 24 NCAA Tournaments and advanced to the title game in 2017 and 2021. The Zags have reached at least the Sweet 16 eight straight times, the third-longest streak in tournament history.