Analysis: Lessons Seahawks learned from five best drafts as they prepare to pick at No. 5
Having the fifth overall pick is enough to make this a rare draft for the Seahawks.
Only seven other times since the Seahawks first participated in the draft in 1976 have they had a higher pick.
They have never actually picked at five before, but seven times they have picked second, third or fourth. The Seahawks are also one of just three teams, along with the Baltimore Ravens and Denver Broncos, to never pick first.
The Seahawks have had a pick higher than five just once since 1997, taking linebacker Aaron Curry at four in 2009.
As coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider reminded everyone Wednesday at the team’s annual pre-draft news conference, this draft is about a lot more than just the fifth pick – which the team got from Denver via the Russell Wilson trade.
The Seahawks have the 20th selection in the first round – the Seahawks have had a higher pick only three other times in the Carroll/Schneider era – as well as the 37th (another gift from the Wilson deal) and 52nd in the second round and 83rd in the third.
It’s in those picks where the real legacy of this draft figures to be determined.
“Five of the top 83 is probably the one thing that really stands out,” Schneider said.
Or as Carroll said: “What I think is exciting about this one is you get the first challenge coming up at five and then we’ve got a whole other one at 20, and day two (rounds two and three) we come right back again. Those three big events of those early picks, it kind of comes back at us in a hurry, makes it really fun and a challenge.”
The Seahawks have had five of the first 83 picks only two other times in franchise history. And those came in their first two seasons.
In 1976, the Seahawks and Buccaneers, as expansion teams, were allocated extra picks at the end of rounds two through five. The Seahawks picked five times from No. 2 and 62.
The following year, a trade with Dallas to swap first-round picks and allow the Cowboys to take running back Tony Dorsett at two – Dorsett said he wouldn’t play for the Seahawks – gave them three additional second-round picks. The Seahawks picked five times from 14 to 58 (they also had pick 87).
According to the famed Jimmy Johnson draft-pick value chart, the Seahawks have the third-most draft capital of any team this year with 3,754 points, behind only Houston (which has the second pick and 12 overall) and Carolina (which traded with the Bears to get the first pick).
Johnson devised the chart while coach of the Cowboys in the early ’90s to try to assess a point value to every pick to guide the team in trade talks during the draft. Of their points, 3,635 are from the first five picks. After picking at 83, they don’t pick again until 123 and then not until 151.
“Obviously everybody is focused on five, and rightfully so, but the 20th pick is extremely important, as is 37,” Schneider said. “You’re constantly trying to paint pictures and scenarios of what you think will happen and what other teams will do.”
If we want to keep this positive as the draft approaches, you might be wondering what are the best draft classes in Seahawks history and are there any lessons to be learned?
Glad you asked.
Here’s a look at what could be generally considered the top-five draft classes in Seahawks history – and another that may well be down the road.
2012
Key players: QB Russell Wilson (third round), LB Bobby Wagner (second) LB/DE Bruce Irvin (first).
Comment: This will always be the gold standard of Seahawks drafts as they got future Hall of Famers in the second (Wagner) and third (Wilson) rounds at two of the most important positions. If there’s a lesson here, it’s to trust your board. The Seahawks were worried that if they took Wagner at 47, Wilson might not last to 75. But they knew that if they took Wilson at 47 that Wagner would be gone. So, they stuck to their board and took Wagner and sweated it out, banking that the consensus on Wilson would hold true.
2010
Key players: LT Russell Okung (first), safety Earl Thomas (first), WR Golden Tate (second), S Kam Chancellor (fifth).
Comment: If there’s a lesson here as well it may be similar to 2012 – stick to the plan. In their first year together, Carroll and Schneider knew there were many needs to address. They gambled, in taking Okung, that Thomas would still be there at 14, but as with 2012, figured the odds were better doing it that way. It paid off as they got player who manned left tackle through the Super Bowl years and a possible HOF safety. That allowed them to take some gambles the rest of the draft, which paid off handsomely in Chancellor, taken 133 overall. Not that every gamble worked. Six picks before drafting Chancellor, they selected DE E.J. Wilson at 127. He played two career NFL games.
2011
Key players: OL James Carpenter (first), LB K.J. Wright (fourth), CB Richard Sherman (fifth), CB Byron Maxwell (sixth), LB Malcolm Smith (seventh).
Comment: If there’s a lesson in this draft, it may be to go with what you know. Well, that and take the linebacker who falls to 99 because his combine testing didn’t wow but whose college production should have (Wright). What really put this class over the top was Sherman and Smith, two players with whom Carroll was familiar. He coached Smith at USC and tried to recruit Sherman.
1997
Key players: LT Walter Jones, CB Shawn Springs.
Comment: In Dennis Erickson’s third year as coach, the team made an aggressive move to get Jones, trading their third-rounder to Atlanta to move up from 12 to six. If there’s a lesson here, it’s to have a plan and stick to it. All along they wanted to get Springs and Jones and pulled it off, or so the team said afterward, anyway. Another lesson is to have your owner sign off on it. Paul Allen hadn’t officially bought the team but had to commit to paying the salaries – this was before the rookie salary cap. Allen officially got the team a couple months later, and as Jones’ jersey hanging from the rafters showed, it all worked out.
1990
Key players: DL Cortez Kennedy, LB Terry Wooden, S Robert Blackmon, RB Chris Warren.
Comment: Proving that one successful draft doesn’t assure sustained success, they did about as well as a team can do with its top four picks in 1990, getting a Hall of Famer in Kennedy at three after a trade with New England, and three players who were starters for at least six years each in Wooden, Blackmon and Warren. The lesson here may be to not mess up your QB situation when you have a generational DL on hand.
And one more ….
2022
Key players: LT Charles Cross, RB Kenneth Walker III, RT Abraham Lucas, CBs Tariq Woolen and Coby Bryant.
Comment: It’s obviously too early to put this in the class of the others. But getting what are essentially five starters as rookies in one draft puts it on course to be there someday. So what did the Seahawks do right last year? Schneider said one thing they did was attack specific positions where it had needs. “We had two open spots at offensive tackle, we had two corner spots that were wide open; nickel was wide open,’’ he said. “We were ready to dive in, and I think the coaches and the scouts did a great job working together and having the buy-in and then having the guys really go for it with the development starting in that first minicamp.’’ Schneider said this week that the Seahawks have made some of their best picks when they were just taking what they felt was the best player available.
Maybe the lesson is really to do your best and hope for the best.