Putin’s Taiwan support outweighs any Xi concerns about Ukraine

Even as Vladimir Putin admitted that Xi Jinping had concerns about the war in Ukraine, the Russian leader’s comments on Taiwan may ultimately matter more to his Chinese counterpart.

During their first in-person talks since the Ukraine war began, Putin on Thursday blasted what he called “provocations by the U.S. and its satellites in the Taiwan Strait,” while reiterating support for Beijing’s “one China” principle.

Beijing’s statement on the call thanked Moscow for its position on the island while asserting that “no country is entitled to act as a judge on the Taiwan question.” The statement made no mention of Ukraine, where Russia’s military has suffered humiliating setbacks recently.

Despite questions about the extent to which China supports Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Beijing has been clear it agrees with Russia’s gripes about the U.S.’s expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization posing a security threat. China has accused the U.S. of seeking to establish an Indo-Pacific version of the alliance, and views recent actions by policy makers in Washington as encouraging separatism in Taiwan.

Tensions around Taiwan have increased after U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island in early August, with Xi ordering unprecedented drills by the People’s Liberation Army in the Taiwan Strait. Beijing is also warning of yet more upheaval if U.S. lawmakers pass the Taiwan Policy Act, which would give Taipei $4.5 billion for defense over four years and potentially recognize the island as a major non-NATO ally.

“Rather than Putin seeking more support from China on Ukraine, he pledged more support on the Taiwan issue,” said Henry Wang Huiyao, founder of the Center for China & Globalization, a policy research group in Beijing. “That’s something new to me and shows Putin wants to get closer with China, rather than vice versa.”

Although currently the focus is on what help China may be able to help Russia in its war on Ukraine, over the long term Beijing may be calculating what support Moscow could provide in any Taiwan conflict. If war were to break out, Russia could be crucial in ensuring supplies of food and fuel that could be disrupted by sanctions and any military moves by the U.S. and its allies.

The Ukraine war is giving Beijing more leverage to continue to buy oil and gas from its neighbor, which could translate into greater Russian military support for China over the long term, according to Alexander Gabuev, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment of International Peace.

“The material help will be in strengthening the PLA — nuclear deterrence, transferring weapon designs and transferring new systems,” Gabuev said. “This is material support for China’s Taiwan policy that’s not advertised.”

In the event of a war over Taiwan, China would need a stable strategic supporter at its back as it faces challenges from the sea, Zhao Huasheng, a professor from Shanghai-based Fudan University who researches Russia, wrote in an article published last month by Tsinghua University’s Center for International Security and Strategy.

Russia’s oil and gas exports to China, which will come via pipelines, could bypass sanctions in case of an embargo imposed by the West, he wrote, adding that marine shipping would become unreliable. “In the case of a major international crisis, Russia will be the most important external source of crude oil that China could think of — if not the only one.”

Official readouts from the Xi-Putin meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Uzbekistan mentioned very little concrete details about possible energy collaboration, including on gas pipelines. China, Russia and Mongolia separately said they would actively push forward the construction of China-Russia gas pipeline in Mongolia, according to Xinhua.

It’s still possible that discussions took place behind closed doors. Gabuev from Carnegie noted the presence of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak at the event.

“He’s the guy in charge of the energy relationship with China,” Gabuev said, adding that Russia has a “massive incentive” to work closely with China on energy given the challenges it faces in Europe because of punitive measures taken in response to the war in Ukraine.

The Asian nation surpassed the European Union to be single largest buyer of Russian crude this summer, according to the International Energy Agency. That pace could continue given the EU is due to put shipping and insurance sanctions on Russian oil trade after Dec. 5.

“Where does Russia go?” Gabuev said. “China is the main destination.”