Mock drafts: Gonzaga’s Chet Holmgren in the mix for No. 1 pick with Auburn’s Jabari Smith, Duke’s Paolo Banchero

Has Chet Holmgren’s play through 19 games helped, hurt or hardly moved the needle on his NBA draft status?

A case could be made for all three scenarios, depending on which mock draft you value and perhaps more important what the needs and rosters will look like for NBA squads picking in the first three spots.

There’s little current debate about the top three names in the draft. Gonzaga’s Holmgren, Auburn’s Jabari Smith and Duke’s Paolo Banchero, freshman forwards who create space on the floor with their versatility, have also created space at the top of the draft.

The order? That’s where the debate comes in.

“I absolutely would say it’s those three in contention for the No. 1 spot,” said Krysten Peek, Yahoo Sports’ NBA draft analyst the last five years. “Earlier in season (Purdue guard) Jaden Ivey was playing super well and showed that he could be that shooting lead guard that most teams try to build a franchise around, but he’s cooled off a little since.

“And obviously (Wisconsin’s Johnny) Davis gave executives something to think about when he came into Jaden’s house (and finished with 37 points and 14 rebounds in a January victory).”

Holmgren is quite familiar with those four players. Holmgren, Banchero and Smith were in the top six of ESPN’s 2021 recruiting rankings and must-see prospects at prestigious camps and AAU events. Holmgren, Ivey and Davis played for the U.S. team that won gold at the FIBA U19 World Cup last summer. Holmgren was the tournament MVP and Ivey made the all-tournament team.

Davis and Ivey weren’t five-star recruits in the 2020 class, but they’ve raced up mock drafts with outstanding sophomore seasons.

Peek’s latest mock draft has Banchero at No. 1, followed by Smith, Holmgren, Ivey and Davis.

ESPN’s Jonathan Givony’s mock has Holmgren going No. 1 to Orlando, where he would join former Zags point guard Jalen Suggs. The two were prep and AAU teammates in Minneapolis. The draft order was based off ESPN’s NBA basketball power index (BPI). Banchero was No. 2, followed by Smith, Memphis’ Jalen Duren and Ivey. Davis was No. 8.

Smith is at the top of The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie’s big board, followed by Holmgren, Banchero, Ivey and Davis.

“Unlike last year, when the consensus from teams was that at least three players – Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green and Evan Mobley – would have been reasonable No. 1 picks in most classes, this season Smith, Holmgren and Banchero are all seen as the typical quality of player found in the 3-5 range of a typical draft class,” Vecenie wrote.

Vecenie noted the three could become NBA all-stars if they continue to develop, but added the July draft will be “lacking a true franchise-altering talent.”

Mock drafts can change quickly, particularly with breakout performances in the NCAA Tournament, Peek said, citing Baylor’s Davion Mitchell last year and Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver in 2019 as examples of fast risers.

Peek estimated she’s watched 50 of Holmgren’s games and remembers when his father, Dave, showed her a picture of Suggs and Holmgren when Holmgren was in sixth grade. The two were the same height.

“I would go even keel,” said Peek, when asked if Holmgren’s play thus far has changed his draft stock. “I’ve seen a lot of him over the years and he’s playing the way I expected him to play. Against UCLA, we saw some of his best footwork and in transition with that grab-and-go style he was so good at in high school.

“It was good to see him in that head-to-head matchup with Paolo (in Duke’s win over the Zags in Las Vegas). They both downplayed it, but every NBA personnel would have said otherwise. The Texas game was probably Chet’s first big competition in college and since then he’s adjusted to the offense.”

Scouts remain concerned with Holmgren’s 7-foot, 195-pound frame, but there are no questions about his toughness and competitiveness.

“Whatever coach (Mark Few) asks of me to help us get a win, whatever he sees as best, and if that’s me guarding somebody that weighs a considerable amount more than me, that’s what it is and I’m up for any challenge,” said Holmgren, after defending Loyola Marymount’s 235-pound Eli Scott and 245-pound Keli Leaupepe last Thursday.

“When you see Chet in person, it’s shocking how tall and lanky he is,” Peek said. “I’ve asked him before several times what he would say to people that think he’s too skinny and he’d say, ‘They’ve never seen me play a full game. I can bang down low, I can take guards off the dribble.’

“I think Evan Mobley playing so well (with Cleveland) and being a rookie of the year candidate is going to help Chet because they won’t see it as an issue. The same things were said about Evan and he’s done great things this season.”

Mobley was listed at 7-feet, 215 pounds on USC’s roster last season.

Vecenie has the 6-10, 220-pound Smith at No. 1 because he has the highest ceiling if the “entirety of his game comes together” over the next five years. Smith is also more mobile on defense than Holmgren and Banchero, Vecenie wrote.

Smith is the best perimeter shooter of the three, according to Peek. Banchero has demonstrated he can be a hybrid ballhandler with good court vision.

“Honestly, they’re interchangeable depending on team need and whoever gets the No. 1 pick,” Peek said.

Givony projected Gonzaga forward Drew Timme going to Charlotte in the second round at No. 50 and senior point guard Andrew Nembhard at No. 52 to Dallas.

Vecenie has Timme at 65 and sophomore wing Julian Strawther at 67 in his top 100.

“We saw Julian’s coming-out game (20 points and 10 rebounds vs. Duke) in Vegas, his hometown,” Peek said. “That gave NBA scouts pause to take a good look at him. He was a high-level recruit coming out of high school.

“I love Drew as a player, probably one of the hardest workers I’ve seen on a basketball court. He’s very old-school, a back-to-the-basket big man game. On defense, he’s improved on pick-and-rolls and reading ballhandlers and hedging. I hear a lot of people say he’s a player of the year candidate, but if does get drafted it will probably be in the second round. It’s kind of a question how his game translates to the pro level. He’s a hell of a college player.”

Nembhard ranks in the top 30 nationally in assists (5.3) and assist-to-turnover ratio (2.7). The 6-5 point guard has elevated his scoring average to 10.2 points and his 3-point percentage to 37.3 over the past nine games.

“He has a lot of value with the way he sees the court and he’s a phenomenal passer,” Peek said. “He wins. That’s an underrated thing. People don’t talk about how important it is to have a player that knows how to win. Andrew has won at every level.”