WA sees big shift in who moves to the state

Through much of the 2010s, Washington was among the top states for drawing newcomers from other parts of the nation. Those days seem to be over.

Data released last week by the U.S. Census Bureau shows Washington now has more people leaving than moving here. From July 1, 2021, to July 1, 2022, Washington had a net loss of about 3,600 people to other states.

The decline in Washington’s domestic migration this year is not exactly unprecedented. Technically, the state also lost population to other parts of the U.S. last year, but the estimated net loss of 29 people from 2020 to 2021 was negligible. And that was also during the height of the pandemic, and I wondered if the numbers would bounce back in 2022.

They didn’t. They dropped even more, representing a significant demographic shift from the 2010s.

In the years before the pandemic, Washington was growing primarily from domestic migration. From 2015 to 2019, we had annual net gains of more than 35,000 people. In 2016, the peak year, about 68,000 more people moved into Washington than moved away.

The sunbelt remains a magnet for domestic movers. Florida had the largest increase from people moving within the U.S., with a net gain of nearly 319,000. Texas was a distant No. 2 at 231,000, and North Carolina came in third with about 100,000. Idaho was the sole outside-the-sunbelt state in the top 10 for domestic migration, gaining 28,600 people in 2022.

Unfortunately, the Census Bureau only provides figures for the net change from domestic migration – we can’t tell from Washington’s loss of 3,600 if that represents an increase in people leaving Washington or a decline in the number moving in. Perhaps it’s a combination of both.

The data also doesn’t indicate where people go when they leave Washington, nor where they come from when they move here.

Although Washington lost people through domestic migration, the state still gained population from the two other components of population change: Natural growth and international migration.

Natural growth is the number of births minus the number of deaths. Washington had roughly 84,300 births and 70,800 deaths, for a net increase of about 13,500 residents. Many parts of the U.S. have an aging population, and there were 24 states that had more deaths than births. Florida, a popular retirement destination and among the states with the highest median age, had the largest natural decline: 40,200 more deaths than births.

Washington also gained population through international migration, which more than just bounced back after a sharp drop due to the pandemic. The state grew by 37,500 from international migration this year, exceeding the previous high of 33,100 in 2015. International migration fell to just 9,200 in 2021.

The three components of population change combine for a net increase of about 45,000 Washington residents, or 0.6% growth for the year. Washington’s population is now 7,705,000, and it remains the 13th most populous state. While Washington is no longer among the 10 fastest-growing states in the U.S., ranking 16th this year, we easily beat the U.S. average growth rate of 0.4%.

But Washington remains well below the growth rates we saw in the previous decade, during which there were several years when the state grew by more than 100,000 people.

The fastest-growing state, for the first time since 1957, was Florida. Its population increased by 1.9% from 2021 to 2022. Idaho was second, at 1.8%, followed by South Carolina at 1.7%.

Numerically, Texas had the largest population growth at 471,000, beating out No. 2 Florida, which grew by 417,000. North Carolina was a distant third at 133,000.

There were 18 states that lost population. New York had the greatest decline, at 0.9%, followed by Illinois and Louisiana, both at 0.8%. New York also had the largest numeric decline at 180,000, followed by California (114,000) and Illinois (104,000).