Gonzaga offense still functioning at elite level despite perimeter shooting slump

Now through 10 games of the regular season, Gonzaga’s high-powered offense is spitting out numbers that rival just about anyone in the country.

The fifth-ranked Bulldogs have predictably exploited inferior opponents like Dixie State, Bellarmine and Alcorn State, but they’ve also generated consistent offensive production against a few the nation’s best teams, including No. 2 Duke and No. 4 UCLA.

While advanced analytics support the notion that Gonzaga possesses one of the country’s top-performing offenses – the Bulldogs are No. 2, according to statisticians Ken Pomeroy and Bart Torvik, and No. 1 on Evan Miyakawa’s website – other metrics suggest the Bulldogs still haven’t scratched the surface of what they could be come March.

In its most recent game, GU needed to make five 3-pointers in the second half just to finish 22.2% from beyond the arc against Merrimack. It was the third time in four games the Zags shot below 30% from the 3-point line and brought GU’s four-game total to 28.2% (24 of 85).

GU’s recent 3-point-shooting struggles were brought to coach Mark Few’s attention during a recent postgame interview.

“I don’t know how much we’re struggling from 3,” Few said. “Julian (Strawther) has done a nice job, is shooting a nice percentage. Rasir (Bolton) is shooting an incredible percentage. Chet (Holmgren) lately has been stepping up and Chet’s turned down a lot of 3s. That’s hurt us as far as the shooting.

“The other thing again, when you really dive into the analytics on Merrimack, people don’t shoot a high percentage against that zone. They fly out, chase you off the line and they’re contested. So I thought we did a nice job of searching the proper way to score against them.”

Even if the Zags aren’t struggling from the perimeter by Few’s estimation, they’re far from sizzling.

The sample size may be too small to make any long-term conclusions about Gonzaga as a 3-point-shooting team in 2021-22. If the Bulldogs can make a turnaround over the final 19 games of the regular season, their offense could go from highly potent to flat-out unstoppable by the time the NCAA Tournament arrives.

“I feel like as the season goes on, everyone’s going to fill into their shoes a little bit more and get more comfortable out there,” Strawther said. “We’ve been playing in some big games, different venues all around, and I feel like everybody is just starting to settle down a little more and I feel like everybody’s shots going to eventually get rolling.”

Gonzaga’s averaged 85.6 points per game despite a 3-point clip of 32.9% that ranks No. 208 among Division I teams. Since Few’s first season in 1999-00, no Gonzaga team has finished a season shooting lower than 35% from 3-point range and 11 teams have shot 38% or better.

While the Bulldogs may not need a high perimeter-shooting clip to win their 18th West Coast Conference title under Few, or claim another top seed at the NCAA Tournament, 3-point percentage can be a helpful gauge when handicapping teams capable of winning a national championship.

Of the past three champions, Virginia had the lowest 3-point percentage at 39.5%, and the last title winner to shoot lower than 35% from distance was Louisville (33.3%) in 2013.

The primary rotational players in Gonzaga’s backcourt are shooting 60 of 169 (35.5%) from 3-point range, with Strawther and Bolton both at 41% on the season. The Bulldogs, predictably, aren’t getting the same consistency or volume from a frontcourt that includes Holmgren, Drew Timme and reserve forward Anton Watson, who’ve taken 41 3-pointers and made 11 for a clip of 26.8%.

“I love all the shots we’re taking, we all have confidence in each other,” Strawther said. “It’s always, next one’s going in, next one’s going in. Got to make sure everybody stays confident and keeps letting it rip.”

Even slight progress could lead to a sizable difference for Gonzaga, which has averaged 83 ppg in games against No. 5 Texas, No. 2 UCLA, No. 5 Duke and No. 16 Alabama.

Timme (18.4 ppg) and Holmgren (13.5) have steered the country’s most efficient offense inside the 3-point arc, combining to make 112 of 157 (71%) of their attempts. The Bulldogs lead all DI teams with a field-goal percentage of 64.5% inside the arc and are outscoring opponents in the paint by an average margin of 45.2 to 29.5.

Gonzaga’s offense is also one of the nation’s best when it comes to tempo. The Bulldogs rank No. 21 nationally in adjusted tempo – a KenPom metric that accounts for offense and defense – and are outscoring opponents 144-74 this season in fast-break points.

It’s no wonder they aren’t sweating some early inconsistencies from the 3-point line.

“Us, like most teams now, are just trying to really find themselves and make their stamp on who they are, really cement who they are in the country as a basketball team,” Bolton said. “So I think we’re still figuring it out and we’re going to get there soon.”