Analysis: Where the Seahawks fit into the NFC playoff picture entering Week 17

SEATTLE – The route to the No. 1 playoff seed in the NFC for the Seattle Seahawks isn’t complicated.

If Seattle beats the 49ers on Sunday, Green Bay loses at Chicago and New Orleans loses or ties at Carolina, the Seahawks would have the No. 1 seed.

But most observers aren’t sure it’s realistic, either. FiveThirtyEight.com pegs the chances of Seattle claiming the top seed at just 4%.

But as long as the chances aren’t zero, coach Pete Carroll says Seattle has something to play for this week.

And thanks to some finagling of start times – done by the NFL to create maximum suspense on the final weekend – the Seahawks will kick off against the 49ers thinking they still have a chance.

Start times for Seattle, Green Bay and New Orleans are all set for 1:25 p.m. Pacific time.

The No. 1 seed is more important than ever this year because it is the only one that receives a bye the first weekend. That change was to add one more team to the field in the NFC and AFC, each now getting seven.

Under the old format in place since 2002 with six teams getting bids in each conference (each of the four division winners and two wild cards) the top two seeds in each conference received a bye.

The three times Seattle has reached the Super Bowl it had the top seed – receiving a bye and winning two home games to advance.

FiveThirtyEight.com gives Green Bay – which needs only to win, or Seattle to lose – a 79% chance to win the top seed. New Orleans, which needs a win, a Green Bay loss and a Seattle win (which would make the Saints the winners of a three-way tie) is pegged at 17%. And as a refresher, Seattle would finish with a better record than the Saints, who are also 11-4 heading into the weekend, if the Seahawks win and Saints lose. A Seattle win and Green Bay loss would see those two teams tied at 12-4. But Seattle would win a common games tiebreaker to get the nod over the Packers.

Some might wonder if the Seahawks would consider resting players in the final weekend with a relatively low shot to claim the top seed. But the top seed is akin to winning a playoff game, which makes it worth the effort, Carroll said.

“We’re going for it, and we would love to have that break (the bye in the wild-card round) for players if we can get it,” Carroll said when he spoke to media Monday via Zoom. ” … We’re playing for it because it’s good for you, good for your body. So we’re going to try to take care of business and get that thing if it’s possible.”

All three teams are favorites to win – the Saints are 6.5-point favorites, the Packers 5.5 and Seattle 4.5, via VegasInsider.

But as the Jets’ win over the Rams two weeks ago shows – or even the Jets’ win Sunday against the Browns – anything can happen. Division games can be tricky, and the Bears are also playing for a postseason spot.

Seattle has twice in recent years played the final game of the season when it had unclear or nebulous meaning, in 2016 and 2018. Both times Carroll said the Seahawks wouldn’t change their approach of trying to treat every game the same.

In 2016, Seattle had a remote shot to claim the No. 2 seed entering the final weekend, needing the Saints to beat the Falcons. When Atlanta pulled ahead big in the fourth quarter, Carroll pulled many Seahawks regulars, including quarterback Russell Wilson. Trevone Boykin memorably led a late drive to put away a 25-23 win (as the Saints mounted a comeback that briefly made one wonder if the Seahawks should put their starters back in).

In 2018 the Seahawks entered the final game having clinched a playoff spot, with only their seeding in question (either No. 5 or 6). Wilson and other regulars played as normal, and Seattle eked out a 27-24 win on a last-second Sebastian Janikowski field goal, getting the No. 5 seed and a trip to Dallas instead of Chicago.

Carroll said the team will monitor the other results, and 2016 showed that he could consider pulling players based on what happens.

But Carroll said everything will be the same entering this game as it was for Sunday’s 20-9 win over the Rams that clinched the NFC West and at least the third seed.

“I don’t want to break that mentality at all,” Carroll said. “We want to stay right with it and keep pushing and trying to get better. And we’ve got a lot of room to get better.”

If the Seahawks end up as the No. 3 seed they could face a rematch with the Rams, who are given almost 72% odds by FootballOutsiders.com to claim the No. 6 seed. Seattle could also face Chicago, Tampa Bay or Arizona if it is either the No. 2 or 3 seed.

Asked about the new playoff format, Carroll said he thought it was good to add another team but added that he wished no team received a bye.

“If it was all even it would probably be better in my mind,” Carroll said.

But it’s not, which makes the top seed more valuable than ever.

“This is a championship opportunity to put ourselves in the best situation going into the playoffs,” Carroll said.