Enrollment decline impacts Spokane Public Schools budget

Declining enrollment linked to the COVID-19 pandemic could cost Spokane Public Schools almost $20 million in lost revenue from the state this year.

“This is having a pretty significant impact on the district,” Superintendent Adam Swinyard said Tuesday.

That shortfall will be made up from several sources, including federal CARES funding, staffing reductions and other unspecified cuts, plus a drawdown on district reserves.

The district’s fiscal picture will be revisited during Wednesday night’s school board meeting.

Through November, enrollment is 27,749. That’s 1,100 down from a year ago and 1,776 below projections made during the summer, when this year’s budget was being formulated.

The district receives $9,071 per student annually in basic education funds from the state superintendent’s office, and that comes out to just over $16 million. The district also will lose about $3 million in special education and other funding.

This week’s interim financial report includes another potential problem: steeper enrollment declines than in past years, which could mean even larger deficits.

For example, in 2019, Spokane began the year with 29,480 students. As it does every year, enrollment rose in October, to 29,700. Then it began the gradual slide the rest of the year as students leave the system.

Last year, the October-to-November drop was 110. This year, it fell 170, perhaps a sign that more parents are seeking alternatives to distance learning.

“We are trying to look at why we had that decline,” said Cindy Coleman, the district’s chief financial officer. “But what happened in November was different than a normal year.”

Of course, nothing has been normal this year.

Coleman said the district sent out surveys to parents to gauge their intentions. However, COVID-19 rates rose sharply in early September, apparently dissuading some parents from enrolling.

In hindsight, the district’s projections were too optimistic. Swinyard said the district expected some parents might seek alternatives to the distance learning model employed by the district, but that it would be offset by population growth.

However, like many other districts, Spokane drastically underestimated the loss of enrollment. Roughly one-third of that shortfall was comprised of kindergartners, whose parents either held them back a year or sought other choices.

“They didn’t want this to be their beginning learning experience,” Swinyard said earlier this year, when the first enrollment numbers were unveiled.

Spokane is down about 5.7% – double the state average of 2.8% and far above that of Central Valley (down 2.3%), where population growth has offset the effects of COVID.

Other local districts suffering heavy declines included Nine Mile Falls (9.1%), Freeman (7.2%) and Medical Lake (5.3%).

The declines aren’t surprising to those who work in local neighborhoods.

Jene Ray, associate director of The Zone, a nonprofit that works to assist low-income families in northeast Spokane, said there are even more reasons for the decline.

Ray said some families can’t navigate the potential changes in learning models, from full distance learning to hybrid and back, depending on countywide metrics.

“You might get sick, or the school might get shut down, which for a lot of families is tough to plan for,” Ray said.

For some families of color – many of whom live several generations under one roof – the risk of exposure is too great.

“I’ve even had families ask me if they have to do school this year – can they skip it,” Ray said. “No, they cannot skip it, but they are definitely struggling with a difficult situation.”

Meanwhile, Spokane Public Schools is trying to work through a murky fiscal picture.

Swinyard said the situation underscores the need for help next year, both from the Legislature and Spokane voters.

On Feb. 9, the district will seek approval of a 3-year, $221 million replacement levy that Swinyard said is critical.