Eastern Washington faces rugged road to Football Championship Subdivision playoffs
The bottom line: Eastern Washington head coach Aaron Best simply can’t bring himself to root for Montana.
Not even this week.
This would be the perfect time to send a few good wishes to Missoula, where the Grizzlies host first-place Northern Arizona in a game that will go a long way in deciding the Big Sky Conference title.
Trailing NAU by a game with only three weeks left, Best’s Eagles surely could use the help. That’s OK, Best said Tuesday, trying to deflect the question.
“We have a lot of friends on that staff at NAU, so I can’t root against guys I hang around with every year,” said Best, who went on to talk with reporters about what looks like an exciting finish to the league race.
“I love it,” Best said. “It makes your week more interesting, and it makes our week more interesting because the better the race, the more interest there is.”
Interest will peak Saturday afternoon at Roos Field as 11th-ranked Eastern hosts No. 19 Weber State in what shapes up as an elimination game for the Big Sky title.
The Eagles and Wildcats are also hoping to burnish their resume for a berth in the Football Championship Subdivision playoffs. So are NAU, Southern Utah and Montana.
It’s unlikely the NCAA will pick five teams from the Big Sky, which makes the final three weeks that much more interesting.
Here’s a look at the postseason prospects for Eastern and the other contenders:
EWU (5-3 overall, 4-1 Big Sky, 129th in Sagarin rankings): The goals are always the same in Cheney: a Big Sky title and a seed in the FCS playoffs. Both are still possible, but the Eagles must run the table against Weber State (6-2, 4-1), North Dakota (3-6, 2-4) and Portland State (0-8, 0-5).
Even if Eastern wins all three to finish 8-3, a first-round playoff bye is still problematic. For one thing, nine of the 10 teams ahead of them in the rankings are either unbeaten or have just one loss. That means it will be tough to move up.
Also, Eastern’s strength of schedule will suffer because its final three opponents are a combined 9-16.
Finally, Eastern is only the 19th-best FCS team in the Sagarin rankings and is likely to fall in that rating as well because of strength of schedule.
If the Eagles win two of three games and finish 7-4, they will certainly be playing on Thanksgiving weekend, perhaps on the road.
Northern Arizona (6-2, 5-0, 101st in Sagarin): Run the table against Montana, MSU and Southern Utah and the Lumberjacks will earn a first-round bye and a seed. Even a 1-2 finish should be good enough for the postseason.
Weber State (6-2, 4-1, 110th in Sagarin): Even with a loss at Eastern, the Wildcats are a lock for the postseason if they take care of PSU and Idaho State. A 3-0 finish could mean a first-round bye, while a 1-2 ending would make things interesting.
Southern Utah (6-2, 4-1, 123rd in Sagarin): The Thunderbirds – who were picked to finish seventh – will be heavy favorites at home against North Dakota and on the road against UC Davis (4-4) before the home finale with NAU. The job is simple: Win two out of three and get ready for postseason action.
Montana (5-2, 3-2, 136th in Sagarin): A loss to NAU should slam the door on the Griz, but what if they rebound with wins over Northern Colorado (2-5) and MSU (4-4)? Would the NCAA snub a 7-4 Montana team? Given their low Sagarin ranking and lack of quality wins, the answer should probably be yes. Yet stranger things have happened.