Vince Grippi: Math daunting, but not impossible, for Mariners

The season is 26 games old. At least it is for the Mariners.

So it seems appropriate to ask that age-old question: Where are we now?

The answer is simple: Not where anyone would want to be.

After Sunday’s 12-4 loss in Cleveland – ending a 4-6 road rip (which was actually quite an improvement from their first one) – the M’s are 11-15.

They are in last place in the American League West, though only a half-game out of third.

But something is beginning to not add up.

Which is one way of saying it’s time to look at some numbers.

It’s been 16 years since the Mariners played in a postseason. So the average M’s fan spent the entire offseason trying to figure what it would take to actually have bunting hanging in Safeco in October.

Ninety wins? More? Less?

It took 89 last year. The M’s came up three short.

Let’s say that’s the same target this season. Which means – 89 minus 11 equals 78; 73 minus 15 equals 58 – will have to play 20 games over .500 the rest of the way to hit the magic number.

Is it possible? Sure. After all, last year the Dodgers were two games under .500 in late May and went 70-48 the rest of the way.

But are the M’s good enough to put together a run like that? It’s hard to see how.

Not with 40 percent of their starting rotation sidelined for at least the next three weeks – Felix Hernandez is expected to be out at least that long with bursitis in his shoulder that flared up last week; Drew Smyly, who was injured in the spring, isn’t expected back until the end of May at the earliest – and a bullpen that is best described as inconsistent.

And for all the wheeling and dealing Jerry Dipoto did in the offseason – he is like the draft-week John Schneider all year long – there are still amazingly wide holes in the lineup.

The biggest is behind the plate where Mike Zunino and Carlos Ruiz are a combined 14 for 85. That’s a .165 average. Throw in the disappointment that is Danny Valencia in April (a .181 average, one home run and five RBIs), and the lineup’s bottom is failing more often than Congress.

Heck, the Nationals’ Anthony Rendon had almost as many RBIs on Sunday (10) than Zunino, Ruiz, Valencia and Jarrod Dyson combined for in April (12). That hurts.

Not that there haven’t been bright spots.

April was the month of Mitch Haniger, who hit .342 with an OPS of 1.024 in 21 games. It would have been more, but the rookie outfielder is out for at least three more weeks with a strained oblique muscle.

And Jean Segura has been nails at the top of the lineup. He hit .319 for the month. In 14 games. It would have been more, but the shortstop was out for two weeks with a strained hamstring.

Notice a trend here? If Guillermo Heredia were to get hurt, the jinx would be complete.

Maybe the M’s are just unlucky thus far. Everyone has injuries. This may just be their bad month.

But to get to 89 wins, it better be.

There aren’t deep roots in the organization. No savior is playing in Tacoma. If there are an extra four or five power arms waiting to bolster the bullpen, one would think they would be up by now.

The M’s return home Sunday, take Monday off and then start a home stand that includes six games with the Angels and the Astros.

The gum that is holding the starting rotation together better be pretty elastic. And it wouldn’t hurt if the catchers would start making solid contact.

Making the postseason may not be rocket science, but it does involve a little math.