Dan Caesar’s Thursday night NFL pick: Bucs at Falcons

Kickoff: 5:25 p.m., CBS Records: Tampa Bay 0-2, Atlanta 1-1 Line: Falcons by 6 1/2 O/U: 45 1/2

Synopsis: Both teams coming off clunkers, Tampa losing to a team that had a QB making his first NFL start – St. Louis’ Austin Davis – and Atlanta having a lackluster outing in Cincinnati. But the advantage here goes to the Falcons, as they are at home. Look for Falcons QB Matt Ryan to get back on track in the Georgia Dome, where he threw for 448 yards and three TDs in his last outing. Atlanta has the league’s second-ranked offense to face the No. 14 defense. Pick: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 13.

Dan Caesar, St. Louis Post-Dispatch