Dan Caesar’s Week 11 NFL picks

Texans at Browns

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Records: Houston 4-5, 2-3 away. Cleveland 6-3, 4-1 home.

Line: CLE by 3 O/U: 41

Synopsis: Struggling Houston turns to QB Ryan Mallett, who has one completion in four NFL seasons. And teams whose QB makes his first NFL start, as Mallett does here, are 22-51 over the last 7 1/2 seasons (1-3 this year). That’s a bad sign as Cleveland is 12th against the pass. The Texans will also be without RB Arian Foster.

Pick: Browns 24-13

Vikings at Bears

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Records: Minnesota 4-5, 2-3 away. Chicago 3-6, 0-3 home.

Line: CHI by 2 1/2 O/U: 46 1/2

Synopsis: Chicago is in disarray after being blasted last week at Green Bay, its fifth loss in six games, and faces a foe that comes off a bye and has won two in a row. Minnesota has the NFL’s No. 4 pass ‘D.’.

Pick: Vikings 23-20

Falcons at Panthers

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Records: Atlanta 3-6, 1-4 away. Carolina 3-6-1, 2-3 home.

Line: ATL by 1 O/U: 46 1/2

Synopsis: Atlanta finally won last week, vs. lowly Tampa Bay, after dropping five in a row and faces another reeling foe here. Carolina has dropped four straight and was blown away at Philadelphia on Monday.

Pick: Falcons 27-23

Bengals at Saints

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Records: Cincinnati 5-3-1, 1-2 away. New Orleans 4-5, 3-1 home.

Line: NO by 7 O/U: 50 1/2

Synopsis: Cincinnati has had 10 days to think about its meltdown vs. Cleveland, in which QB Andy Dalton had a passer rating of 2. He’ll try to get healthy vs. New Orleans’ No. 24 pass ‘D.’ The Saints are mad after squandering the game last week to San Francisco, and QB Drew Brees should carve up the No. 30 ‘D.’

Pick: Saints 30-20

Broncos at Rams

Kickoff: 10 a.m. (CBS)

Records: Denver 7-2, 2-2 away. St. Louis 3-6, 1-3 home.

Line: DEN by 9 1/2 O/U: 5 11/2

Synopsis: St. Louis’ formula is to start fast then collapse, and Denver certainly has the capacity to pour it on late with it’s Peyton Manning-led aerial show. The Rams go back to QB Shaun Hill, who has a 47.3 passer rating in two apperances this season. Denver has the league’s No. 5-ranked ‘D.’

Pick: Broncos 31-17

Bucs at Redskins

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Records: Tampa Bay 1-8, 1-3 away. Washington 3-6, 2-2 home.

Line: WAS by 7 1/2 O/U: 45 1/2

Synopsis: Tampa Bay takes its march to oblivion to Washington, where Robert Griffin III makes his second start after recovering from an ankle injury and faces the NFL’s second-worst pass ‘D.’

Pick: Redskins 31-20

49ers at Giants

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Records: San Francisco 5-4, 3-2 away. New York 3-6, 2-2 home.

Line: SF by 4 O/U: 44 1/2

Synopsis: San Francisco comes off a big OT win at New Orleans. The Giants have lost four in a row, by an average of 18 points. The 49ers’ ‘D’ ranks No. 2 in the NFL and should harass QB Eli Manning. 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick faces the league-worst ‘D.’

Pick: 49ers 23-20

Raiders at Chargers

Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.

Records: Oakland 0-9, 0-4 away. San Diego 5-4, 3-1 home.

Line: SD by 10 O/U: 44 1/2

Synopsis: San Diego has dropped three straight. But things are looking up. Winless Oakland comes calling, bringing the NFL’s worst offense and a ‘D’ that has allowed 71 points over its last two outings.

Pick: Chargers 30-17

Lions at Cardinals

Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. (Fox 28)

Records: Detroit 7-2, 3-1 away. Arizona 8-1, 5-0 home.

Line: ARI by 1 O/U: 41 1/2

Synopsis: Division leaders meet but Arizona is without QB Carson Palmer, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. Drew Stanton replaces him, and the Cardinals were 2-1 when he stepped in while Palmer was sidelined early in the season. Stanton has a tall order, as Detroit has the NFL’s top ‘D’ at 283.4 yards- per-game allowed. The Lions’ offense, with key WR Calvin Johnson, faces the Cardinals No. 30 pass ‘D.’

Pick: Lions 20-17

Eagles at Packers

Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.

Records: Philadelphia 7-2, 2-2 away. Green Bay 6-3, 4-0 home.

Line: GB by 5 1/2 O/U: 54 1/2

Synopsis: Philadelphia looked strong last week in blasting Carolina with QB Mark Sanchez at the helm, where he remains with Nick Foles still out. But he gets a stern road test here vs. the No. 9 pass ‘D.’ Green Bay averages nearly 42 points per game at home.

Pick: Packers 33-30

Patriots at Colts

Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)

Records: New England 7-2, 2-2 away. Indianapolis 6-3, 3-1 home.

Line: IND by 3 O/U: 58

Synopsis: New England has won five in a row, (average score 40-22), Indy has won six of seven, the wins by an average of 34-15. The Colts are the NFL’s top scoring team (32.2 points per game), the Pats are No. 3 (31.2). With both ‘Ds’ in the middle of the pack in yards allowed, look for a shootout.

Pick: Colts 31-30

Steelers at Titans

Monday: 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)

Records: Pittsburgh 6-4, 2-3 away. Tennessee 2-7, 1-3 home.

Line: PIT by 6 O/U: 47

Synopsis: Pittsburgh comes off a clunker, falling to the Jets. The Steelers would be wise to try to get their ground game going, as the Titans are 29th vs. run.

Pick: Steelers 24-20