Warming could brew more storms
El Niño, the warm sea-surface temperature event along the equatorial regions, continues to weaken. According to the Climate Data Center, global weather patterns are expected to return to normal for summer.
During our last winter, El Niño was labeled as “moderate.” As a result, many of the Pacific storm systems went to our south bringing much- needed moisture to California.
In terms of snowfall, the Inland Northwest had some of the lowest amounts in history. With no El Niño, an active tropical storm and hurricane season may be just around the meteorological corner, especially when compared to last season. During El Niño events, the change in global upper-air patterns will sometimes inhibit the formation of these storms. Many forecasters believe this upcoming season has the potential to be very active. I also agree with the initial forecasts.
The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season was below average with only nine named tropical storms. That was the fewest since the 1997 season, which had only seven named storms. For the 2010 season, I see about 15-18 named storms with six to eight becoming hurricanes. At least four of these potentially deadly storms are expected to become major hurricanes, reaching at least a Category 3 status.
This upcoming hurricane season may be active because ocean waters off the coast of Africa and the Caribbean regions are warming up. These areas are where the tropical storms are born. The warmer ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean waters would actually help fuel the storm’s development. If the ocean temperatures were above normal levels along the equatorial regions, then the chances of an active season would be low. The combination of the cooler equatorial waters and warmer Caribbean and Atlantic Ocean may result in more named storms this season.
The overall average is 11 named storms with six becoming hurricanes during an entire season, which begins June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
In the eastern Pacific Ocean, above normal numbers of tropical storms and hurricanes are expected as well, especially south of Baja in Mexico. There are more named storms in the Pacific Ocean than the Atlantic and Caribbean regions. However, there is more media attention to the Atlantic region because it is more populated..