Swing in ocean temperature apparently brings ‘La Nada’

It appears that El Niño, the warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperature in the south-central Pacific Ocean, is gone.

At this moment, it looks like we’re in what I would call a ‘La Nada,’ a cycle between the El Niño and a cooler-than-normal La Niña sea-surface temperature pattern.

Before the late 1990s, it would often take several years for ocean temperatures to flip from the El Niño to La Niña. Within the last 10 years, though, we’ve seen sudden changes from El Niño to La Niña and vice-versa, sometimes within months.

The latest sea-surface temperature data has the equatorial regions cooling down. In fact, there is a strip of cooler-than-normal sea-surface along the equator that is showing signs of intensifying. Whether this is an indication of the formation of a new La Niña is still too early to tell, but it bears watching. The Southern Hemisphere is now in its winter season, so it’s possible that we may see further cooling of the equatorial waters over the next several months.

During the severe winters of 2007-’08 and 2008-’09, we had a La Niña pattern along with low sunspot activity. If cooler ocean temperatures continue to expand in the next two to three months, we’ll likely see above-normal snowfall next winter. However, it’s still too early to tell.

This is certainly a wet month in the Inland Northwest. After Monday’s record rain of 0.39 inch, the total June precipitation at the airport is at 2.55 inches, about .90 inch above the monthly normal. Since May 1, the airport has received 4.7 inches of rain. As of early Tuesday, the seasonal total stands at 9.93 inches, which is 1.29 inches above normal.

Much of the summer heat is east of our region. High humidity and temperatures near 100 degrees are making life miserable for many residents, especially in the Southeast. We are on the opposite end of that hot weather pattern.

However, the cool and wet spring cycle is expected to be replaced by a strong ridge of high pressure that will be building in the south around early July. When this happens, conditions will dry out and temperatures will warm up in a big way. By the way, when we have a wet June, our region often has a hot summer.

Until early next month, I’m still expecting some showers along with some nice days.