Normal, below-normal hurricane season forecast
Hurricane season officially started June 1, and it has been pretty quiet so far both in the Atlantic and Eastern Pacific. For the month of June, there were no tropical storms in the Atlantic. In the Eastern Pacific, hurricane Andres, with maximum winds of 75 mph, affected the southwestern coast of Mexico during the last week of June. One fatality was associated with that storm.
For the same reason I enjoy reading my horoscope every once in a while, I also find it interesting to check out the latest seasonal hurricane forecasts. I say “forecasts” in the plural since there are often multiple forecasts put out by different people or agencies. While I have the utmost respect for my fellow meteorologists who specialize in tropical weather and associated storms, I really wonder about the usefulness of seasonal hurricane forecasts. What good is it to try to predict how many hurricanes will form in one season, when it’s more important to know whether or not they will make landfall and where? Gerry Bell, Ph.D, and lead seasonal hurricane forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center did make a good point: “Prepare for each and every season regardless of the seasonal outlook. Even a near- or below-normal season can produce land-falling hurricanes, and it only takes one land-falling storm to make it a bad season.”
The latest forecast from NOAA calls for a “near-normal” Atlantic hurricane season, with a 70 percent chance of having 9 to 14 named storms, of which 4 to 7 could become hurricanes, including 1 to 3 major hurricanes. Another forecast, put out by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Kotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University, calls for slightly “below average” activity with 11 named storms, five hurricanes, and two hurricanes of category 3 or higher. Joe Bastardi, meteorologist and founder of the large private weather forecasting company Accuweather, also predicts fewer hurricanes this year (as compared to last year), but warns that the East Coast could still be at risk for a major storm, while in contrast, folks on the Caribbean Islands would get a break from the storms this year.
The 2008 hurricane season saw 16 named tropical storms including eight hurricanes, of which five were considered major.