Some warming expected in early February
In the midst of all the big snows and below-freezing temperatures, many people are asking when spring will get here.
This Saturday is Groundhog Day, and the world’s most famous groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania woodchuck, will be making his annual appearance. Each Feb. 2 at precisely 7:25 a.m. he is hauled out of his fake tree stump on Gobbler’s Knob, about 2 two miles east of town to see if he can see his shadow. The town celebrates this event with a festive atmosphere of music and food.
If Phil supposedly catches his shadow, he’s scared back into his den for six more weeks of slumber. The winter season, in turn, will drag on for least another six weeks. If Phil doesn’t see his shadow, then spring is right around the corner. Believe it or not, Phil sees his shadow approximately 90 percent of the time.
As in most examples of weather folklore, there is an ounce of truth in Phil seeing his shadow and therefore predicting six more weeks of winter. Clear skies at this time of year usually mean that a strong cold ridge of high pressure is over the area. There is a definite six-week cycle to high pressure ridges. They often take two weeks to build, two more weeks to peak and two additional weeks to move out of a particular region or zone. Hence, perhaps, six more weeks of winter.
The legend of Groundhog Day is based on an old Scottish couplet: “If Candlemas Day is bright and clear, there’ll be two winters in the year.” Candlemas Day was a Christian holiday that celebrated Mary’s ritual purification. They believed that if the sun came out on that particular day, winter would last for six more weeks.
Will Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow? At deadline on Tuesday it looked like the groundhog wouldn’t see his shadow, which would mean that spring will arrive early. Hooray!
The folks here in the Inland Northwest are hoping that Phil does not see his shadow. Many have let it be known to me that they don’t want six more weeks of winter.
Last weekend’s huge storm was one that occurs every 10 to 15 years. Approximately one foot of snow fell in Spokane with 20 inches in Coeur d’Alene and 31 inches in Rathdrum. Snowfall totals early Tuesday at the Spokane International Airport were near 55 inches, compared with a normal of 33 inches. In Coeur d’Alene, more than 103 inches had been measured. If another 22 inches of snow falls in Coeur d’Alene, then the 2007-08 season will be the snowiest on record. I expect to see the Spokane International Airport end up with at least 65 inches of snow, up from my previous estimate of 50 inches.
There is some good news for those who want milder weather. Some warming is still expected to return around the first full week of February. Highs should briefly climb into the 40s before more snow and colder temperatures return.
Much warmer readings are expected by early to mid-March, and I expect most of the snow below 3,000 feet will melt as the spring of 2008 is expected to arrive at least two weeks ahead of schedule. (Hey, maybe Phil will be right!) But, this spring should be a bit cooler and wetter than usual due to a relatively strong La Niña event in the Pacific waters.