Romney leading Michigan polls

WASHINGTON – Mitt Romney leads John McCain days before a potentially pivotal Republican primary in Michigan, with Romney’s business experience and home-state ties apparently helping in a state where the economy is taking center stage, according to a new McClatchy-MSNBC poll.

The rise of the economy as an issue and Romney’s new strength after two losses underscored how volatile the campaign has become as the party grapples to find a new leader and direction for the post-Bush era.

No winner has yet to gain a bounce into the next contest, and in Michigan, 11 percent of likely primary voters were still undecided, a bloc big enough to swing the vote in any direction. Even among those who say they support a candidate, 39 percent said they still could change their minds.

Likely voters in Michigan rank the economy and jobs their top concern, well above some of the other issues that had dominated much of the Republican debate nationally for months, such as national security and terrorism, taxes and government spending, moral issues, and illegal immigration.

That’s little surprise in a state with an ailing auto industry and the nation’s highest unemployment rate. But it also could be a sign of a shifting political landscape as the rest of the country also starts to see warning signs of an economic slump.

If it helps Romney get back into the race after two disappointing losses in Iowa and New Hampshire, it could shake up the campaign yet again and turn it into a three-person contest among him, Iowa winner Mike Huckabee and New Hampshire winner John McCain.

“Romney still lives,” said Brad Coker, managing partner of Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, which conducted the poll. “At least he still has a chance. If he can hang onto this lead, the race really gets interesting.”

That’s still a big if, especially given the way polls have failed this year to detect late shifts of voting in Iowa and New Hampshire. This survey, which measured voter sentiment through Friday night, is not a prediction of the final outcome.

The numbers:

“Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, had 30 percent.

“McCain, the Arizona senator, had 22 percent.

“Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, had 17 percent.

“Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson had 7 percent.

“Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani had 6 percent.

“Rep. Ron Paul of Texas had 5 percent.

“Rep. Duncan Hunter of California and former Ambassador Alan Keyes of Maryland each had 1 percent.