Ski industry glides along

This newspaper, TV and the Internet are rife with bad economic news. The data cloud is dark. But a report issued by the National Ski Areas Association (NSSA) suggests a silver lining for the ski industry: snow.

“If the snow is good, the industry is recession proof,” said Phil Edholm, CEO of Lookout Pass and president of Ski Idaho. “History shows us is that people will still get out to enjoy themselves with winter recreation.”

Edholm sent me the report on the outlook for 2008-09 commissioned by the NSSA.

“Taking the Long View: What the 2008-09 Season May Hold,” analyzes how trends in the economy and weather affect the ski industry. It correlates consumer confidence and snowfall with ski-area visits over 30 years.

The consumer confidence index (CCI) is issued monthly by The Conference Board, an independent research organization. It measures consumer optimism based on spending versus saving. The CCI hit an all-time low of 38.8 in October. It ticked up to 44.9 in November.

The snow index (SI) is a measure of the relative intensity of snowfall in the U.S. over a given period. A season with an SI more than 100 is considered good.

Since 1978, good snow has been a boon for the ski industry in the toughest economic times. The combination of a lousy economy and bad snow is a disaster.

The report calls out the 1980-81 season, a time of deepening recession. A CCI in the mid-50s and SI in the mid-70s resulted in the worst season on record for the ski industry – 39.7 million total visits.

The next year, with the country still mired in a recession, the CCI languished in the low 50s. However, an SI soaring into the 120s allowed the ski industry to rebound with 50.7 million visits for the 1981-82 season.

Last season a lackluster CCI in the low 50s and SI of 105 resulted in the best season – 60.5 million total visits.

Even with good snow, the report warns that destination resorts will feel some pain this winter. People are staying closer to home.

“I’m hearing about the impact of the economy from some resorts,” Edholm said. “Jack Sibbach (marketing and sales director) at Sun Valley said a long-standing group that used to fly over from England canceled because of travel costs.”

Schweitzer, the closest destination resort to Spokane, has a strong local following.

“With roughly 70 percent of our guests coming from the local drive market, we’re in a pretty good position during a challenging time,” said Jennifer Ekstrom, Schweitzer’s communications manager. “Our local market stats, season pass sales, group bookings and lodging reservations are good. We’re waiting for that big snowfall to shore things up.”

Edholm said people are looking for bargains. Lookout, with the region’s lowest prices, set a record for season pass sales this season. Local ski areas as a whole should weather the economic situation – with snow.

“Our goal is to be the value leader,” said Brad McQuarrie, Mt. Spokane’s general manager. “We do all we can to keep prices down. Season pass sales have gone well. The ski swap – a strong indicator – went well, and we’ve had a lot of people sign up for the bus program. We just need snow.”

The National Weather Service predicts a strong winter storm with widespread heavy snow moving into the area tonight and Saturday, followed by an intrusion of frigid arctic air – a forecast warming the hearts of ski-area operators and their customers.