Georgia crisis could complicate Iraq withdrawal

WASHINGTON – Army Gen. David H. Petraeus, the U.S. commander in Iraq, is being forced to grapple with one of the unexpected byproducts of the conflict in Georgia: His plan to withdraw American forces in Iraq was predicated on all partner nations keeping troop levels intact.

With nearly 2,000 Georgian troops returning home to join the crisis there, the coalition has lost what one senior military official called one of the largest and most capable contributions to the Iraq effort. As a result, the official said Petraeus is assessing whether he will have to change his plans, including delaying the return home of some U.S. forces later this year.

“One of the assumptions for the future in Iraq was that coalition contributions would remain relatively stable,” said the senior military official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Iraq troop deployments publicly. “This is the third-largest contingent and a very capable contingent. This changes the calculus.”

A military officer in Baghdad cautioned that Petraeus had not completed his assessment on force reductions when the Georgians left, adding that U.S. and Iraqi forces have been able to take over positions Georgian troops had occupied.

But another military official familiar with Iraq planning said Georgian troops had been central to a new push to block Iranian weapons shipments coming across the border in southeastern Iraq, setting up a base in the city of Kut and patrolling nearby border regions.

“You can’t lose the Georgian component without some impact,” said the military official, who also requested anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss Iraq troop deployments publicly. “If you had to assess the 30 countries in Iraq as a coalition force, Georgia was among the top tier, both in number and capabilities.”

Petraeus is in the midst of a 45-day assessment period, which began at the end of July when the last of the five “surge” brigades departed from Iraq. At the end of the assessment, he is due to deliver his recommendation as to whether U.S. troop draw-downs can resume this fall. Over the course of this year, American force levels have gone from a peak of 170,000 to about 140,000, just above pre-surge levels.