Audience drop-offs trigger alarm, hope

Viewing patterns are still settling in after almost three weeks of the new TV season, but it’s already clear which new shows are troubled.

And it’s clearer still that there’s no runaway hit along the lines of “Lost,” “Desperate Housewives” or last fall’s “Heroes.”

Top newcomers are ABC’s “Grey’s Anatomy” spinoff “Private Practice” and NBC’s “Bionic Woman” – which compete in the same Wednesday 9 p.m. time slot – and ABC’s “Pushing Daisies,” which airs an hour earlier on Wednesdays.

Premiere week is like a buffet dinner: Viewers gorge on some shows and settle on favorites later.

New series tend to lose 10 percent to 15 percent of their initial audience in their crucial second week.

Anything less is cause for celebration; anything more is a worrisome sign.

That’s why eyebrows were raised by the 28 percent drop-off in young-adult viewers for “Bionic”, a remake of the 1970s series, which had scored highly in surveys measuring preseason interest.

The drop is “not a good sign,” says Magna Global USA analyst Steve Sternberg.

“This type of Episode 2 decline usually indicates further falloff.”

“Bionic Woman,” down 20 percent among all viewers, joins a list that includes ABC’s “Big Shots” (26 percent drop overall) and CBS’ “Cane” (18 percent drop).

Fox’s “K-Ville,” which premiered earlier, fell 31 percent its second week and another 13 percent last week.

Each was heavily promoted, but the falls suggest “the first episodes didn’t meet the expectations of what everybody hoped to see,” says Starcom media analyst Sam Armando.

On the plus side, CBS’ “Moonlight “and ABC’s “Dirty Sexy Money” had modest declines in their second weeks, down 6 percent and 8 percent, respectively.

Fox’s “Kitchen Nightmares” and CW’s “Gossip Girl,” hurt by new competition in their second weeks, have started to regain some lost ground, earning “Gossip” a full-season pickup Tuesday.

(New series typically are guaranteed just 13 initial episodes.)

Still other shows, including NBC’s “Journeyman,” Fox’s already-yanked “Nashville” and CW’s “Life Is Wild,” have been crushed by the competition.

Gauging the health of TV’s newcomers is based on popularity, especially among young adults; their strength compared to shows they replaced; and their ability to keep viewers of preceding programs from surfing away.

Network viewership is off 7 percent from last fall, which networks blame partly on the use of DVRs.

Nielsen data on delayed viewing through DVRs won’t be available until next week.