Geek predicts most ‘Idol’ outcomes
There’s Paula, Randy, Simon … and now Jim.
From his home in Mentor, Ohio, self-proclaimed computer geek Jim Hellriegel has become arguably the most important “American Idol” player not behind a microphone or Coca-Cola cup. And he can thank his dirty socks.
After watching “Idol” two years ago, the 31-year-old Hellriegel found himself facing an impossible task: holding the phone and placing votes for Bo Bice and Carrie Underwood with one hand, and folding laundry with the other.
“I was really getting frustrated with all the damn busy signals,” says Hellriegel, who works as a Windows server engineer during the day. “And I thought, ‘I wish I could have a computer dial the phone for me.’ “
So was born DialIdol.com, a Web site offering free software that lets “Idol” fans vote with their computer modems.
Hellriegel didn’t stop there. Was there a way, he wondered, to somehow measure the busy signals voters were getting and use that data to predict “Idol” results before the results show?
“I thought, ‘What the heck, maybe I could write this program,’ ” he says. “I had one success, then another success. Next thing I know, here we are today.”
DialIdol is now able to predict (with 89 percent accuracy) who will be staying and who will be going home. The site has become a Wednesday-morning must-visit for “Idol” fans and gets more than a million page views a week.
Recently, the software was used by more than 1,200 people to make more than 523,000 calls into “Idol.”
Here’s how it works: Fans download Hellriegel’s software. They select which contestant (or contestants) they want to vote for. The computer then uses its modem to dial the phone and place the votes. (A user can place around 700 calls during the two-hour voting window using DialIdol.)
All the while, data from the calls are sent to Hellriegel.
For his weekly prediction, he doesn’t count the number of votes or even the number of busy signals, but the percentage of busy signals for each candidate. It’s all based on a simple assumption: a higher percentage of busy signals means more callers, which means more votes.
Hellriegel keeps tweaking his formula to improve accuracy.
Two weeks ago, Hellriegel’s numbers had Sanjaya Malakar in last place, with Blake Lewis and LaKisha Jones rounding out the bottom three. That’s exactly how the actual vote played out. This week, the site correctly predicted that Phil Stacey and Chris Richardson would get the boot.
The accuracy of his picks has made Hellriegel a bit of a star. His site has been featured in dozens of magazines and newspapers, and he’s frequently interviewed on radio shows.
“I try to temper all of that excitement,” he says. “And understand that I still have a dog I have to clean up after.”
The show’s producers are not as excited. Last year, they sent Hellriegel a cease-and-desist letter, ordering him to take down the site.
He did, for a while. After consulting with a lawyer and changing the site’s logo, which resembled the “Idol” logo, DialIdol was back up.
Hellriegel says his dialing software does not violate the show’s rules, which allow for multiple votes but prohibit “power dialing,” a tactic that uses high-tech phone equipment to cast blocks of votes.
Fox spokeswoman Jennifer Sprague doesn’t disagree. “Using a modem dialer is not the same as ‘power dialing,’ ” she says.
Hellriegel says his site makes money through advertising, but not enough for him to quit his day job. He’s trying to stay grounded.
“I would rather more significant work be recognized than DialIdol,” he says. “Ultimately, it’s a silly little Web site based on a TV show.”