NFC CHAMPIONSHIP
When Saints have ball
New Orleans led the NFL in total offense (391.5 yards per game) and passing offense (281.4) and also ranked first with 65 passing plays of 20 yards or longer. But the key to the Saints moving the ball against the Bears will be up the middle on the ground.
Deuce McAllister comes off the first 100-yard rushing game in team playoff history with 143 and also scored twice against Philadelphia. His power, complemented by the dazzling moves and speed of rookie Reggie Bush, could be difficult for Chicago’s suddenly patchy defense to handle. And if the Saints can move the ball on the ground, forcing one of Chicago’s safeties to move close to the line of scrimmage, QB Drew Brees can open up the passing game.
The Bears have been damaged by season-ending injuries to two of their four best defenders, tackle Tommie Harris and safety Mike Brown. Seattle moved well on the ground and in the air and pretty much neutralized All-Pro middle linebacker Brian Urlacher last week. The Saints have just as good an offensive line and a more diversified attack.
If Chicago can’t get pressure on Brees from the front four, particularly Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye and rookie Mark Anderson, or from Urlacher and OLB Lance Briggs, that could be very troublesome for the secondary. Although Ricky Manning Jr. and Charles Tillman make some big plays, they also are vulnerable to them. The rookie Marques Colston could be most difficult to contain.
When Bears have ball
So much has been made of the range of QB Rex Grossman’s performances, from impressive to inept. While he doesn’t have to carry Chicago’s offense, Grossman needs to be functional. And if the Saints move the ball freely, he’ll need to be much more.
Grossman doesn’t measure up to Brees, and the Bears don’t want him put in that position. So Thomas Jones and Cedric Benson must be successful against a rush defense that ranked 23rd and was vulnerable against Philadelphia RB Brian Westbrook last week.
If Chicago runs well, Grossman can pick his spots throwing to Muhsin Muhammad, Bernard Berrian and Rashied Davis, who made the 30-yard OT catch that set up the winning field goal against Seattle.
New Orleans has a strong pass rush led by ends Will Smith, who had 10 1/2 sacks, and Charles Grant, who had a great game against Philadelphia. Along with blitzes from the linebackers or DBs, the Saints want to make Grossman uncomfortable, which can lead to turnovers, as the Seahawks proved.
A key for both offenses will be the weather. If it is windy or icy, that should help the Bears slow down New Orleans’ passing. Then Chicago could concentrate on limiting McAllister and Bush with standout LBs Urlacher and Briggs.
Special teams
Devin Hester has put the special in Chicago’s return teams, and PK Robbie Gould also is an All-Pro. Hester set an NFL record with six returns for touchdowns, and he had another one called back by penalty vs. Seattle. Saints P Steve Weatherford, who ran for a first down when he saw his punt was about to be blocked by the Eagles, needs to avoid Hester. Same thing on kickoffs.
Gould nailed a 49-yard field goal in overtime to beat the Seahawks. He made his first 24 tries this season before New England blocked a 45-yard attempt, and was good on 32 of 36 overall.
Bears punter Brad Maynard is a veteran who understands directional punting, which is critical in Soldier Field. Weatherford could struggle with that.
While Hester is the star kick returner, the Saints are no slouches with Bush and Michael Lewis. Bush’s first NFL touchdown came on a punt return, but Lewis handles most of the duties.
John Carney, a 17-year veteran, doesn’t have as strong a leg as Gould, but he’s accurate.
The key here will be how much Hester impacts the game.
Coaching
The two most recent AP Coach of the Year winners face off.
Sean Payton not only turned around the Saints’ fortunes – they were 3-13 as nomads last season – but he and his team helped in the revival of their community after Hurricane Katrina. They have written an uplifting story on and off the field.
Payton’s varied offense takes advantage of the specialized skills of everyone, from the spectacular Bush and Colston to the rebuilt line.
Lovie Smith of the Bears is a defensive specialist, but his offense under coordinator Ron Turner was impressive this season. His faith in Grossman will be tested again today.
Smith needs to get his defense back to its dominating ways, and that might not be possible without Harris and Brown.
The NFC title game could provide a classic matchup of offensive innovator against defensive mastermind.
Intangibles
The Saints have so many. They’ve been uplifted by a city that, in turn, they are lifting up with their performances.
In Brees, they have an All-Pro quarterback and leader. Don’t look for him to flinch.
New Orleans also has the right karma – voodoo, perhaps?
The Bears had a superb first 10 games, winning nine. They were good enough in the final six games to win four, but they no longer are intimidating.
Barry Wilner, Associated Press