AFC CHAMPIONSHIP

When Patriots have ball

The offense begins with Tom Brady, who is 12-1 as a starter in the playoffs and has won three Super Bowls for New England in his six seasons as a starter. Beyond Brady, the strength of the New England offense is at running back with veteran Corey Dillon and rookie Laurence Maroney and an offensive line led by left tackle Matt Light and center Dan Koppen. Based on the regular season, Dillon and Maroney should get a lot of work against an undersized Indianapolis defense that allowed 173 yards a game, worst in the NFL.

But the Colts’ run defense has reversed course in the postseason. It limited Kansas City, which features Larry Johnson, the NFL’s second-leading rusher, to 44 yards and Baltimore to 83. One reason is the return of strong safety Bob Sanders and the improvement of Anthony McFarland, picked up in October from Tampa Bay to be a run-stuffing defensive lineman.

Brady has worked all season with new receivers after losing Deion Branch and David Givens in the off-season. Reche Caldwell led the team in receptions during the regular season but Jabar Gaffney has excelled in the playoffs with two 100-yard games and 18 receptions after having just 11 catches in the regular season and one 100-yard game in the past six seasons with Houston. Brady’s most reliable targets have been his tight ends: Benjamin Watson and Daniel Graham.

Because teams ran so well against the Colts, their statistics against the pass have been good and they had four interceptions of Brady in a 27-20 regular-season win in Foxborough. Nick Harper is their best cover CB and rookie S Antoine Bethea had an interception against New England and again in the 15-6 win in Baltimore last week.

When Colts have ball

It starts with Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison, who have combined for 106 touchdown passes, more than any QB-WR receiver tandem in NFL history. Reggie Wayne also is a Pro Bowl receiver. Still, Manning has thrown five interceptions in playoff wins over Kansas City and Baltimore and had four three seasons ago in the AFC title game against New England.

Manning’s nemesis Rodney Harrison will miss this game with a knee injury, leaving leadership of the Patriots secondary to CB Asante Samuel and free safety Artrell Hawkins. James Sanders replaces Harrison and could be exploited by TE Dallas Clark.

The Colts replaced Edgerrin James with Dominic Rhodes and rookie Joseph Addai, who combined for more than 1,700 yards rushing this season and had 76 receptions between them. Addai, who rushed for 1,081 yards, has taken over as No. 1 but could have trouble with New England’s front seven, which features the best three-man front in the game: Pro Bowler Richard Seymour, Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren. They are backed up by a linebacking crew that features Rosevelt Colvin, the quickest player in the front seven, plus veterans Tedy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel.

Special teams

The headline matchup is an unusual one: the kickers. Adam Vinatieri, whose clutch kicking was instrumental in the Patriots’ three Super Bowl wins, is now with the Colts and had five field goals last week to account for all of Indy’s points in the win in Baltimore. He was replaced in New England by rookie Stephen Gostkowski, who kicked the game-decider from 31 yards and also had field goals of 34 and 50 yards in the Patriots’ 27-24 win over the Chargers. Pats’ Kevin Faulk is a capable return man but probably not as dangerous as the Colts’ Terrence Wilkins, who averaged 24.5 yards per kickoff return.

The Patriots are on their third punter of the season, former Pro Bowler Todd Sauerbrun, who had been one of the game’s finest but served a four-game suspension for testing positive for the banned substance ephedra and was cut by Denver when he finished it. Indianapolis’ Hunter Smith has spent all eight of his NFL seasons with the Colts, rare in an itinerant profession.

Coaching

Without question, New England’s Bill Belichick is the coach of the century with three Super Bowl wins in the last five seasons. Another would tie him with Pittsburgh’s Chuck Noll, who won four in six seasons with Pittsburgh during the 1970s, when there was no free agency and nothing like the turnover there is now. Belichick’s playoff record is 13-2, a winning percentage of .867 that is higher than any but Vince Lombardi’s .900. One reason: he varies his game plan according to opponents’ weaknesses, rarely sticking to the same formula.

But the Colts’ Tony Dungy’s regular-season record of 114-62 gives him a winning percentage of .648, better than Belichick’s .578 because of Belichick’s losing record during his tenure in Cleveland. Dungy has been to two title games, one in the NFC with Tampa Bay and the other with the Colts three seasons ago, but lost them both, the second to New England. He is a defensive innovator whose zone schemes have been working lately with Sanders’ return.

Intangibles

The Colts always seem to play the Patriots in New England and have split the last four – losing two playoff games and winning two regular-season contests, including 27-20 on Nov. 5. Now they have a fast home track that would seem to help Manning and his receivers, as well as Indy’s two very speedy pass rushers, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.

But the Pats won two AFC title games in Pittsburgh. And they also have the advantage of two playoff wins over the Colts in three years.

Dave Goldberg, Associated Press